Column|In the United States, foreign and security policy experts believe that war against China is inevitable.
QI was in Washington last week listening to the mood of those who follow politics as the presidential election approaches. No one dared to guess the election result. On one thing, however, everyone was disconcertingly of the same mind: a war with China is only a matter of time. It’s the new Washington Consensus.
“China is the number one enemy of the United States,” said an American expert on Asia. “It’s one of the few things Republicans and Democrats agree on these days.”
The discussions were conducted under the so-called Chatham House rules. According to them, I can tell what was said, but not who said it.
In Western countries there is such an idea that we live either in war or in peace, the Asian expert pointed out. He recalled that the Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu talked about a constant conflict, which is fought at different times by different means. “In that sense, it can be said that the war with China has already begun.”
Another security policy expert listed the threats to the United States in this order: China, Russia, Middle East. He reminded that Russia may be a big nuclear power, but economically it is a dwarf. In contrast, China’s economy is about two-thirds that of the United States. Not long ago, it was believed that China would overtake the United States in the next few years, but after the United States cheered up and China became exhausted, the forecast has been changed. It doesn’t make China any less dangerous, perhaps quite the opposite.
The United States has put a lot of pressure on China. Donald Trump has threatened China with huge import tariffs, and no Terrible Harris would be much softer. China has used trade to catch up with the West, but that game is coming to an end. So is it now the turn of the guns?
Chinese dictator Xi Jinping has ordered his army to be ready for the occupation of the island of Taiwan in 2027. In the United States, it is believed that the attack could come even earlier if Xi considers the situation favorable due to, for example, international crises or political instability in the United States.
The United States is not officially committed to defending the island, but the president Joe Biden has promised that the United States will come to Taiwan’s aid. It also makes sense: if the US wants to stop China, it must be done in the Taiwan Strait. Otherwise, the Asian allies of the United States would lose faith in the support of the United States and run hat in hand to Beijing.
Ukraine is for Americans the side stage of the world theater. Ukraine and now also the Middle East are tying up American military forces, which would be needed in Asia. The United States won’t last three wars either, hardly even two. That is why the Americans would like the Europeans to bear the responsibility of stopping Russia. They know they’re hoping for too much – and that, to put it nicely, annoys them.
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The economic collapse would be deep and long.
Americans look at Ukraine through China. However, two different conclusions can be drawn from it. It can be thought that there must be a quick peace in Ukraine so that power can be transferred to Asia. On the other hand, Russia cannot be allowed to win because it would tell China that the attack is worthwhile.
After Afghanistan and Iraq, Ukraine would be the third defeat in a row for the Americans. It doesn’t look good. I noted this at the end of a dinner to an American who had worked in intelligence for decades. He was not happy.
“We have not lost. We’ve just decided to go home,” the man growled, his face reddening promisingly.
in Washington felt that war with China was inevitable. Inevitable, albeit catastrophic. A clash of great powers in the Taiwan Strait would tear apart global production chains and choke off a large part of world trade. Taiwan produces about 90 percent of the world’s microchips. The economic collapse would be deep and long. And this was the best of the war scenarios.
Is there no other possibility, I tried to ask. Way to peace? Ten years ago, everyone in Washington was shouting that trade would pay off and democracy would win. Now let’s put on the war helmets. Can’t pessimism be the same kind of misguided groupthink as optimism used to be?
I didn’t get an answer to these questions.
The author is the person responsible for the editorial and opinion editorial.
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