Republican presidential candidate donald trump leads his Democratic rival Kamala Harris by 2.5 percentage points in the electoral contracts of Polymarket, a prediction platform.
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This slight advantage came after Elon Muskfounder of Tesla and SpaceX, will show his support during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, over the weekend.
At the event, Musk He presented himself as a defender of freedom of expression and the right to bear armscriticizing Democrats for wanting to limit those rights. Musk also highlighted the accuracy of prediction markets versus traditional surveys.
Trump “must win to preserve democracy in the United States,” Musk said, in line with the messages he regularly sends to his 200 million followers on X, the social network he owns.
Although Trump leads in national polls, his performance is less strong in several key states. In Nevada, a state that has been a strong predictor of election results in eight of the last nine presidential contests, it is lagging behind.
According to the data of PolymarketTrump has only one 19% of chances of winning in all the swing states. Kamala Harris also faces difficulties, with a similar probability of winning those states.
Nevada has been a focus of attention in the presidential race, and Democrats have gained ground there, according to data from Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin election aggregator.
A segment of former supporters of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., dissatisfied with the options of the two major parties, have expressed that they could abstain from voting.
In contrast, Ohio appears to be a more favorable state for Republicans. The data of Polymarket suggest that Trump has a 90% odds of winning in this other historically crucial election-defining state, based on historical election data aggregated by USAFacts.
The November 5 elections between the vice president, Democrat Kamala Harris, and former President Trump promise to be close and have Americans on edge.
Election centers in the most contested counties have become fortresses, protected by wrought-iron fences and metal detectors.
The certification of the results of the presidential elections at the Capitol, the scene of an attack by Trump supporters on January 6, 2021, will be done amid draconian security measures.
If the result is as close as believed, it could take days, not hours, for the winner’s name to be known.
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