05/10/2024 – 23:38
AtlasIntel research on voting intentions for the mayor of Natal (RN) released this Saturday, 5th, the eve of the first round of municipal elections, points to a technical tie between federal deputy Natália Bonavides (PT) and federal deputy Paulinho Freire ( União Brasil).
In valid votes, excluding blank, null and undecided votes from the calculation, the PT member has 34.6% of the electorate’s preference and Paulinho, 34.4%. The indices indicate a technical tie within the margin of error of two percentage points.
Former mayor Carlos Eduardo (PSD) has 27.1%. Next are former federal deputy Rafael Motta (Avante), with 2.7%, and Nando Poeta, with 1.1%. Hero (PRTB) did not score.
AtlasIntel carried out 1,600 virtual interviews with voters in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte between September 29th and October 4th. The confidence level is 95%. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol RN-04858/2024.
Total votes
In total votes, the PT member has 32.7% of the electorate’s preference. The parliamentarian grew 4.3 percentage points since the previous AtlasIntel survey, released on September 24. Paulinho Freire has 32.5% of the total votes, having grown 4.6 percentage points since the previous round. Carlos Eduardo records 25.6%, which indicates a fluctuation of two percentage points downwards, at the limit of the margin.
Motta, Poeta and Hero fluctuated negatively within the margin. and The undecided are 2%; in the previous round, it was 8%. There are 3.5% who intend to vote blank or null, compared to 2.2% in the Atlas survey of September 24th.
Second round simulations
In a second round between Paulinho Freire and Natália Bonavides, the PT member has 42% of preference and the former vice-mayor, 41%. The indices indicate a technical draw. There are 16% blank and null votes and 1% did not know how to respond.
Carlos Eduardo would beat both Paulinho Freire and Natália Bonavides. Against the União Brasil parliamentarian, the advantage is 44% to 38%, with 15% blank and null and 4% undecided. Against the PT federal deputy, the former mayor registered 42% to 35%, with 22% null and blank and 2% undecided.
AtlasIntel also evaluated the perception of voters in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte about the candidates for mayor. Carlos Eduardo has a positive image for 42% of Natal voters; for 46%, the image of the former mayor is negative. Natália Bonavides has a favorable image for 42%, compared to 49% for a negative image. Paulinho Freire, on the other hand, has a positive image for 35% of voters; for 48%, the image of the former vice-mayor is negative.
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