The “October surprise” is a popular term used in American politics to describe an event – or several – that have the potential to alter the course of a race for election. the white house just a few days before voters go to the polls.
According to the criteria of
And while the current electoral race, between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, has been plagued by shocks – two assassination attempts or the retirement of the sitting president, to name just a few – this week’s developments in both the international arena and domestic politics could well end up being the straw that tips the pendulum of a race that continues to look extremely tight.
However, the one that weighs the most is the expansion of the conflict in the Middle East after the Israeli raid on Lebanon and the violent response of Iran, which launched more than 200 missiles against the Jewish State in retaliation for the assassination of several of the leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas.
Chaos and instability are the last thing a sitting administration needs when a presidential election is just weeks away.
All of this poses a formidable challenge for a Biden who began his presidency with the firm intention of moving away from conflicts like Gaza to focus on China and Russia, which they think are existential issues.
Although the current crisis was unleashed by Hamas terrorist attack on October 7Biden was never able – at least until now – to influence Israel’s response to be proportionate and his ceasefire plans ended in failure. Many analysts believe that the Israeli Prime Minister’s calculation, Benjamin Netanyahuby launching its offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Biden – and by default Harris – will have to support it even if an all-out war against Iran breaks out precisely because of the proximity of the elections.
At the moment, until the closing of this edition, the world was holding its breath pending the Israeli response with rumors of a possible attack against Tehran’s nuclear power plants or its oil reserves. Which, analysts maintain, will probably unleash a direct conflict between these two powers that would end up dragging in the United States – Israel’s main ally – and perhaps other regional actors..
If we add to that the massive strike of workers in the ports that can interrupt supply chains and push inflation up again, and the disaster that left Hurricane Helene –with almost 200 people dead and entire communities without water or electricity – all this can translate into a perfect storm before the elections.
All are enormous challenges for the administration of Joe Biden and that will have an impact on Harris’ candidacy -vice president and candidate- even if the origin is beyond her control (a natural disaster, an international conflict and a strike by workers demanding better salaries from companies).
“Chaos and instability are the last thing a sitting administration needs when it is just weeks away from a presidential election. But that is, precisely, the reality that Harris suddenly faces and on whose management her fortune largely depends on November 5,” wrote Dan Baltz, political analyst at the Washington Post.
Something that Trump of course knows and will try to exploit in this final stretch.
“Look at the world today. Look at the missiles falling in the Middle East, look at what is happening with Russia and Ukraine, look at how inflation is destroying the world. None of this was happening when I was president,” the former president wrote on his social networks.
Look at the world today. Look at the missiles falling in the Middle East, look at what is happening with Russia and Ukraine, look at how inflation is destroying the world. None of this was happening when I was president.
An argument, needless to say, that ignores how chaotic his four years of government were and from which many of the current problems emanate. Recently, in fact, more than 100 Republican national security leaders and defense issues, wrote a letter in which they allege that Trump is not fit to be the new commander in chief and that, before doing so, he would put the country even more at risk given his lack of experience in international politics and authoritarian tendencies.
However, and given that he is not in the White House at the moment, the events of the week do allow him to show Biden-Harris as an incompetent duo responsible for the crises that are shaking the country.
Among all, of course, An out-of-control war in the Middle East poses the greatest challenge and threat to Harris’ aspirations.
How do conflicts impact the United States?
Nobody forgets, for example, how the management of the war in vietnam cost the Democrats the presidency in 1968. Or what happened in the 1980 elections, when Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter largely because of the impact it caused the kidnapping of 50 Americans in Iran after the Islamic revolution of 1979.
Apart from the narrative of chaos that they promulgate trump and Republicans, the crisis in the Middle East poses two additional challenges. On the one hand, the possibility that it will skyrocket oil prices and increase the cost of living, already high and one of the weakest flanks of this administration – and of Harris as his heir.
On the other hand, it threatens to further divide the Democratic coalition, which is currently fractured into two factions on this issue: one that includes young voters and the Arab communitywhich asks the administration to suspend the delivery of weapons to Israel and demands an investigation into human rights violations, and another that favors a pragmatic approach that pushes for a cessation of hostilities and Israel’s moderation, but without withdrawing the support.
While both young people and Arabs are unlikely to favor donald trump – since the Republican’s positions are even more aligned with those of Benjamin Netanyahu – they could choose not to vote, which would be serious for the vice president’s aspirations. Additionally, there are undecided or independent voters who may doubt whether Harris has the credentials to overcome a crisis of this magnitude.
“The Biden administration is facing an impossible situation. He is criticized for his lack of empathy for the suffering of the Palestinians and for double standards when he favors his allies. But at the same time there is the perception that the government is moving from one foreign policy crisis to another. Which Trump exploits as an example of his weakness and the diminished role of the United States on the international stage,” says analyst Miram Aister in The Conversation.
The Biden administration is facing an impossible situation. He is criticized for his lack of empathy for the suffering of the Palestinians and for double standards when he favors his allies.
However, Trump doesn’t have it easy either. This week the arguments of Special Prosecutor Jack Smith were made known in the criminal process he has open for interfering in the 2020 elections. And although much was already known, the letter of 165 pages presented by the Prosecutor contains serious accusations about the extremes to which the former president went to “steal” the elections and remain in power.
Trump, Smith alleged, was aware that he had lost the election and yet “used private actors and the infrastructure of his campaign to try to reverse the result.” It is uncertain whether the new revelations will have any impact on voter perceptions. But they do put the chaotic end of the 2020 elections – including the storming of the Capitol – back on the table and just when many are about to make their final decision.
It is also unclear whether any of these new developments will have a decisive, or lasting, effect on a campaign that has been quite the roller coaster.
The near future looks more uncertain – and explosive – in Middle East. But it could well end up being a delicate skirmish that does not escalate. What is evident, as demonstrated by these “October surprises”is that the last page of this contest is still far from being written.
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI Correspondent THE TIME Washington
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