Election political polls today 4 October 2024
ELECTION POLITICAL POLLS – Brothers of Italy and the Democratic Party are growing, the League is collapsing, the M5S is declining: this is what emerges from the latest political electoral polls drawn up byNoto institute for the program Door to door.
According to the survey, Fratelli d’Italia grew by half a percentage point compared to the previous survey, carried out on 19 September, thus reaching 30.5%.
The Democratic Party does even better, gaining 1 percentage point to 23%. The 5 Star Movement drops by 0.5 percent and is now at 12% while Forza Italia, which gains half a percentage point, flies to 9.5 percent.
Thud for the League which loses a percentage point, falling back to 7.5%. Greens/Italian Left stable at 7 percent while Action and Italia Viva are both at 2.5% with Matteo Renzi’s party, however, dropping by half a percentage point.
HOW POLLS ARE DONE
Electoral and political polls are carried out by opinion polling companies respecting very specific scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to interview that is sufficiently large and representative of the population they intend to analyse. In the case of surveys on party voting intentions or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the adult Italian population, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls. This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible.
Usually a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the margin of error indicated is 3 percent with a confidence interval of 95 percent. The greatest difficulty for pollsters is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population. Interviews for electoral political surveys are usually carried out with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out interviews, opinion polling companies rely on specialized companies.
Read also: All surveys
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