Column|For years, the elections in Georgia and Moldova were only of interest to passionate enthusiasts in EU countries, but now it is different.
Here there are two such elections per month, which usually do not arouse much interest in us.
This time, both the presidential elections in Moldova and the parliamentary elections in Georgia will receive the attention they deserve. Both of them are basically about the countries’ relationship with the West, the progress of EU membership goals and Russia’s influence. In Moldova, this is officially the case, because in connection with the presidential elections, a referendum is organized on whether to change the constitution to enable EU membership.
In the background, of course, Russia’s large-scale attack on Ukraine, which scared both countries. The fear was understandable, as Russia has maintained so-called frozen conflicts in both countries for a long time. In Moldova it is Transnistria, in Georgia it is Abkhazia and South Ossetia. However, the reactions of the leaders of the countries were different: in Moldova, the leadership’s Russia speech became stricter, in Georgia it was diluted.
Russian greater attention now seems to be focused on Moldova, in whose internal politics Russia has long been a significant player.
It has been quite easy, because Moldova, located between Romania and Ukraine, is one of the poorest countries in Europe. Russia has been able to put economic pressure on Moldova with import bans, but also easily entice Moldovans to watch expensively produced Russian television entertainment and at the same time, of course, Russian propaganda. Russia has also used money to support various parties and politicians that are useful to it, either directly or through intermediaries.
Russia’s major attack on Ukraine changed the situation. As the president of Moldova, he was already oriented towards the West Maia Sanduunder whose leadership Moldova supported Ukraine, broke ties with Russia and promoted EU integration. The EU path has solid support, and in opinion polls a clear majority supports changing the constitution.
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A familiar curve has been seen in Georgian politics.
However, Russia has not given up. Moldovan intelligence recently reported that Russia has channeled one hundred million euros to pro-Russian groups in Moldova for information campaigns and election influence.
in South Caucasus the situation in Georgia is different. There, the ruling party, which has become more authoritarian all the time, is aiming for its fourth term.
A billionaire who made his money in Russia Bidzina Ivanishvili founded by the party came to power in 2012 when Georgians grew tired of the increasingly authoritarian to Mikhail Saakashvili. A familiar curve has been seen in Georgian politics again, but no one can say whether Ivanishvili’s party will even agree to share power if it loses its majority in parliament, as the opinion polls predict.
The majority of Georgians support western integration, so officially the ruling party is still pushing for it. However, the rhetoric of Ivanishvili’s party has become more ferocious and pro-Russia all the time. However, the party says it only wants to prevent the war from spreading to Georgia. It is difficult to say how much of the laws and speeches copied from Russia by the ruling party are about pro-Russia sentiment and how much is about trying to stay in power. However, sitting on the fence also means that Georgia allows Western sanctions against Russia to flow through its territory.
European the security situation is now such that the elections in Moldova and Georgia really matter to Western countries.
Unfortunately, both countries are still higher on the priority list in Russia than in the West. It is a risk factor for them, which should also be understood in the West. And fix it.
The author is the editor-in-chief of HS.
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