For a first analysis ofIran’s attack on IsraelAdnkronos spoke with Federico Borsari, resident fellow of the Center for European Policy Analysis (Cepa), defense and security expert. “Compared to the one in April, we witnessed a less diversified attack. Tehran chose to use only ballistic missiles, but with a greater capacity, while a few months ago it also deployed drones and cruise missiles.”
What are they? “Among the most modern in its arsenal – explains Borsari. The Fattah 1, unveiled just over a year ago, a medium-range ballistic missile (approximately 1400 km) which Iran defines as hypersonic, but more precisely it has an initial launch phase at hypersonic speed, then the warhead detaches from the booster and is pushed by a second smaller engine which allows it to be maneuvered in the terminal phase. It is more complicated for air defense systems to shoot down. Of traditional ballistic missiles, the trajectory can be calculated after launch, whereas these can be ‘corrected’ in flight and are therefore more difficult to intercept.”
What other missiles were used? According to Borsari, “based on the images of some downed components, they would also have used the Kheibar Shekan, also a medium-range ballistic missile but with a non-maneuverable warhead. And then the Emad, which has 1800 km of range. The first two they have warheads around 500 kg, the Emad reaches 750 kg, so we are talking about weapons that can be very dangerous and cause heavy damage to the target.”
The impact on Israel, continues the expert, “was limited, the air defenses worked and so did the United States with their naval assets in the Red Sea and the Mediterranean they lent a hand. But from the videos circulating, it seems that dozens of missiles have impacted the ground, and this means that Iran has managed to ‘saturate’ Israel’s defense capabilities. Among the targets were some air bases, including Nevatim, which hosts the F-35s. These are 39 very advanced latest generation fighters, which the air force – warned a few hours in advance of the imminent attack – will certainly have taken off from that base. Both to contribute to the air defense and to prevent them from being damaged. To understand the exact extent of the damage, however, we must wait for the next few hours.”
In this attack there was no intervention by Jordan and the United Kingdom, which instead had helped Israel in April by shooting down a series of drones and missiles. “It’s a more technical question than one of regional alliances: last time the Jordanian air force shot down drones and cruise missiles, which travel much lower than ballistic missiles. In this case it would not have been able to intercept them.”
Ultimately, is it a test of strength or a test of weakness, given that even today Iran, despite the rain of fire, has failed to inflict serious damage on its enemy? According to Borsari, “launching 200 ballistic missiles in a single attack means having a highly developed arsenal. An estimate from the US Central Command spoke of around three thousand ballistic missiles, but the number could be higher. And we know they continue to produce them. Of course, the capabilities of the groups supported by Tehran in the region are smaller, Hezbollah, Houthis and Syrian militias cannot be compared in terms of equipment. But the Lebanese group still has thousands of rockets, as well as short-range ballistic missiles supplied by Iran. The Iron Dome, the famous Israeli shield, is used primarily to block short-range attacks and with less sophisticated weapons, while Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 are used to defend the country from medium-range missiles. A stratification that allows Israel a certain security, also demonstrated in these hours by its General Staff. But it would be reckless to underestimate Iranian capabilities”, concludes Borsari.
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