Middle East | “This is a significant and serious escalation of the situation,” the researcher commented on Iran’s attack

Israel announced on Monday that it would begin “limited operations” in Lebanon.

According to Israeli media, the country’s security cabinet approved the next phase of the Lebanon operation on Monday evening.

On Tuesday, Israel claimed, among other things, that it struck the area of ​​Beirut, the capital of Lebanon.

The extremist organization Hezbollah, on the other hand, said that it had launched missiles towards the Sde Dov air base, reports the news agency Reuters, among other things. The air base is located on the outskirts of the city of Tel Aviv in Israel.

However, information about the details of the operation is scanty. So far, there has been no confirmation from Lebanon of the presence of Israeli forces in the country.

On Monday Iran attacked Israel with missiles.

“This is a significant and serious escalation of the situation”, a researcher at the Institute for Foreign Policy Timo R. Stewartt says.

Stewart sees the attack as a warning message to Israel: the attack should not be taken any further, says Stewart.

In any case, Israel will respond with some kind of strike, says Stewart.

According to Stewart, the consequences of a counterattack would be unpredictable.

“If, for example, someone from Iran’s leadership were to die in an attack, it could lead to a full-scale war between Israel and Iran,” says Stewart

Stewart is surprised by the Iranian attack. According to him, Iran is already an underdog compared to Israel due to, among other things, Iran’s weak economic situation. In addition, Israel has the United States to support it.

“I’ve always thought that Iran has no interest in this kind of escalation because there are US aircraft carriers in Israel to protect Israel,” says Stewart.

This one according to current information, Israel has sent about a division’s worth of troops across the border, i.e. about ten thousand people, says Stewart.

“Israel says that they have carried out precise and well-targeted strikes, in which they aim to destroy, among other things, Hezbollah’s tunnels, fire stations and bases,” says Stewart.

According to Stewart, Israel has launched the ground offensive in order to weaken Hezbollah as much as possible. In order to speed up the attack, Israel may move even more troops across the Lebanese border, Stewart estimates.

“Right now, Israel’s goal is to strike against Hezbollah as hard as it can.”

Earlier on Monday, Israel’s defense minister Yoav Gallant said Israel would use “all possible means by air, sea and land” in the fight against Hezbollah.

Stewart’s it remains to be seen what kind of resistance the Israeli forces will face on the Lebanese side.

Israel has targeted Hezbollah with airstrikes. So far, Hezbollah has focused on protecting itself from them.

However, according to Stewart, ground warfare is Hezbollah’s strength. Hezbollah has been able to prepare for an Israeli attack for a long time, and the organization has many well-trained troops. In addition, the terrain of southern Lebanon is suitable for a defensive war.

Puzzles However, Hezbollah is troubled by the organization’s internal situation.

Hezbollah commander Hassan Nasrallah died in Israel’s doing in Friday’s attack. In addition, the organization’s communication system is at least to some extent out of use for those organized by Israel pager explosions because of.

“It remains to be seen how Hezbollah will be able to defend itself effectively in this state of fragmentation. It’s impossible to estimate what the situation will look like,” says Stewart.

According to Stewart, killing the leadership and breaking into the communication systems has caused fear in Hezbollah about how deep Israel has possibly managed to infiltrate it.

“However, this does not eliminate the tens of thousands of fighters that Hezbollah has. Hizbollah’s power is largely still there. It is able to assemble itself with time.”

Israel seeks to take advantage of Hezbollah’s internal vacillation by striking right now.

The goal is to weaken Hizbollah so much that it would take as long as possible for it to get stronger, says Stewart.

Stewart believes that Israel will primarily try to strike Hezbollah’s military targets, as that would be their greatest advantage in terms of advancing the attack.

“It’s not yet known how precisely they’re going to do it,” says Stewart.