01/10/2024 – 15:14
The markets began to reflect Iran’s most recent offensive against Israel carried out early this afternoon (Brasília time) on Tuesday, the 1st. Investors demonstrated greater aversion to risk in stock and foreign exchange markets.
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Oil, which was already operating at an increase of around 4% with the possibility of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, intensified the rise. At around 2 pm, WTI oil rose 5.25% and Brent rose 4.98%.
Ibovespa recently renewed its maximum. Oil accelerated the rise, influencing Petrobras shares. PN, for example, had an increase of more than 4%. Furthermore, the widespread rise in the sectoral part of the stock market draws attention.
“I think it reflects the macro part, with the interest rate curve closing, following abroad, and this is helping the stock market well”, says Bruno Takeo, strategist at Potenza Capital. According to him, with the start of missile launches by Iran, space is opening for more volatility.
At 2:03 pm, the Ibovespa rose 1.13%, to 133,310.22 points, compared to an increase of 1.21%, at a maximum of 133,405.49 points.
The dollar also rose against the real before the attack on Israel was confirmed, as the US currency strengthened abroad, driven by fears of conflict in the Middle East and expectations of gradual interest cuts at the Federal Reserve, which put pressure on the currency. Brazilian.
In this session, the real accumulated some gains against the dollar in the first hour of trading, with the positive domestic scenario for the exchange rate, amid the prospect of an increase in the interest differential between Brazil and the United States, making the Brazilian currency attractive for foreign investments .
Very much under the influence of this factor, the dollar accumulated a drop of 3.32% against the real in September, and opened October already returning the gains of the previous session, when it closed up 0.24%, quoted at R$5.44.
As a result, the dollar reached the low of the session at the beginning of negotiations (-0.34%), as the market continues to project greater monetary tightening at the Central Bank, while the Fed continues its cycle of easing interest rates.
But the scenario did not hold. Abroad, the dollar had already risen broadly compared to its peers since the beginning after the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, dropped the day before the bets on a 50 basis point cut in the rate in November, the same move carried out last month.
At a conference, Powell said he sees another 50 basis points of accumulated easing this year if the “economy performs as expected”, raising traders’ expectations that the Fed will gradually reduce interest rates by the end of this year.
“I think the pressure from the dollar is widespread and global in nature today… with the real aligned with the movement of the dollar against our main peers,” said Fernando Bergallo, operations director at FB Capital.
Missile attack
Sirens are triggered in Israel and authorities ask the population to look for safe spaces. Launches come after US warning about an “imminent attack” by the Iranian regime. The Iranian regime launched an attack with ballistic missiles against Israel in the early evening of Tuesday (01/10), Israeli authorities said. Sirens were sounded throughout Israel and there were reports of explosions in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Israel’s military and Civil Defense authorities asked the population to take shelter in safe places.
Israeli media pointed out that Iran launched more than 100 missiles at Israel. It is unclear whether the missiles are hitting targets or being intercepted in the sky over cities.
This is Iran’s first direct attack on Israel since April, when Tehran attacked two Israeli air bases with missiles and drones and struck parts of the occupied Golan Heights.
At that time, most of the weapons launched by Iran were intercepted by Israel, the United States or Arab countries in the region, such as Jordan.
Earlier, a senior US government official warned that Iran was preparing an imminent ballistic missile attack on Israel.
The new escalation of the conflict in the region comes amid a new ground offensive by Israel in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah, a group that is supported by Iran.
Israel has expanded military operations since the terrorist attack promoted by Hamas – another Iranian-backed group – against Israel on October 7 last year, in which around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, were killed, and around 250 hostages were taken. to the Gaza Strip.
In response, Israel began a military operation in Gaza that has already left more than 40,000 dead, according to the local Ministry of Health, controlled by Hamas, in addition to killing people in attacks in Lebanon and Yemen.
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