A new survey shows a small trend reversal: the SPD is gaining approval, while other parties are losing ground – especially the Greens.
Berlin – After months of setbacks, the SPD seems to be slowly but surely getting back on track with voters. Like a new Forsa survey for RTL/Ntv shows, the Social Democrats are back in second place in an election survey for the first time after their success in the Brandenburg election. However, the Chancellor’s party shares this with the still strong party AfD. The survey comes around a year before the next federal election.
Weaker than they have been in seven years: Greens crash to historic low in survey
While the Union ranks undisputedly in first place with 31 percent, the SPD is now positioned behind it with 17 percent thanks to an increase of two percentage points. The AfD is also on par, maintaining its poll numbers. Things are particularly bad for the traffic light parties of the Greens and the FDP. Despite the resignation of the federal executive board in response to the disastrous eastern elections, the Greens continue to fall and are still barely in double digits at 10 percent. For the Greens, this is the lowest Forsa value since November 2017.
The FDP can maintain its poll numbers – but not in a positive way. The Liberals currently only have 4 percent, and would therefore miss out on entering the Bundestag. That too BSW has to suffer a setback: The Wagenknecht party comes in at 6 percent in the Forsa survey – this would at least ensure its entry into parliament. The left Meanwhile, it continues to stand still and only comes to 3 percent.
CDU/CSU | 31 (-1) |
SPD | 17 (+2) |
AfD | 17 (0) |
The Greens | 10 (-1) |
FDP | 4 (0) |
BSW | 6 (-1) |
The left | 3 (0) |
Other | 12 (-2) |
The market and opinion research institute Forsa conducted this survey on behalf of RTL/Ntv from September 24th to 30th, 2024. 2501 eligible voters were surveyed. The stated error tolerance for the survey is +/- 2.5 percent.
New survey: Small SPD high also affects the chancellor question
But which topics were the respondents particularly concerned about? According to the information, the participants mentioned above all the last state elections (47 percent) and the economic situation in Germany (36 percent), closely followed by the work of the traffic light coalition (35 percent) and the Ukraine war (32 percent) and the Middle East conflict (27 percent). The topics of immigration (14 percent) were also on their minds US election (9 percent). Despite the recent storms that caused deaths in neighboring countries, only 7 percent of those surveyed mentioned the climate and environment. 6 percent also mentioned internal security.
Of course, the participants were not only asked about their party preferences, but also which candidate they would like to have as the next Chancellor. The SPD’s small high is also reflected here: In the duel against Union Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz (27 percent), Olaf Scholz (26 percent) can catch up by two points in the Forsa survey. This means that the official is only one percent behind the CDU leader. (nak)
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