The study “The future of electric mobility in Italy @2035”, jointly conducted by Motus-E and PwC Strategy&, was presented in Rome. And the verdict scheduled for the middle of the next decade is clear: by 2035 Italy will be equipped with an infrastructure that will count between 198,000 and 239,000 charging points for public use for electric vehicles thanks to private investments of up to 4 billion euros, flanked by over 5 million domestic and business charging points. The analysis presents two scenarios, one of which is more conservative and another accelerated.
The conservative scenario
Starting from the scenario conservativeit is estimated that by the end of the decade, 2.6 million electric vehicles and 1.2 million plug-in hybrids will be circulating in Italy. In 2035 there will be 8.6 and 1.2 million units respectively. At the same time, from an infrastructural point of view, the presence in Italy of 115,000 charging points for public use is expected by 2030 and 198,000 by 2035. What kind? 52% will be alternating current (AC) points, 36% will be fast direct current types up to 149 kW of power (DC) and 12% will be ultra-fast with power from 150 kW and above. As for private charging, the number of domestic charging points has been estimated at 1.5 million in 2030 and 4.4 million in 2035, to which 143,000 and 451,000 charging points in the workplace must be added respectively. In this scenario, an increase in national electricity consumption of 23 TWh is also estimated by 2035, therefore less than 8% of the current overall Italian electricity demand.
The accelerated scenario
Coming instead to the accelerated scenariothe report estimates a circulating fleet of 3.6 million electric vehicles and 1 million plug-in hybrids by 2030, while there will be 10.4 and 1 million units respectively within the following five years. In this scenario, on the infrastructural front, the presence in Italy of 152,000 charging points for public use is expected by 2030 and 239,000 by 2035 with the same subdivision described above in terms of typology. As regards private charging, we are talking about 2.1 million domestic charging points by 2030 and 5.3 million by 2035, to which we can add 188,000 and 545,000 charging points in the workplace respectively. Final comment on the increase in electricity demand for vehicle charging, which also in this case will be marginal compared to national electricity consumption, reaching 28 TWh, less than 10% of total electricity demand.
Electric car charging
“In the face of a global technological transition such as the electrification of transport, it is necessary to start from the data to build an urgent industrial relaunch policy for the automotive sector in Europe. For this reason it is necessary to immediately overcome the sterile ideological conflicts that are characterizing the debate on the future of the car, fueling a climate of uncertainty that damages consumers, workers and industry – commented the president of Motus-E, Fabio Pressi – In this context the Italian market it is undoubtedly late compared to other large European countries, but thanks to the massive investments in the charging network it has enormous growth potential in electric vehicles, which can be realized with clear and programmatic support for vehicle demand. Central will therefore be the three-year incentive plan anticipated by Minister Urso in the last meeting of the Automotive Table, for which the mobilization of resources must now be accelerated to avoid a new blockage of the market, but also a review of the taxation of company cars, still even to the 90s, which was also functional in fueling the used electric market”.
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