Negotiations to form a government coalition began this Monday in Austria, a day after the historic victory in the legislative elections of the far-right party FPÖ, whose leader Herbert Kickl, however, is not guaranteed to lead the country.
According to the criteria of
The Freedom Party (FPÖ) obtained 28.8% of the votes, an increase of 13 points compared to the 2019 elections. according to the counting of almost all the votes. The conservatives of the current ruling party, the Austrian People’s Party ÖVP, led by Chancellor Karl Nehammer, came second with 26.3%.
But Kickl is far from guaranteed the job of head of government and may even be left out of a coalition cabinet, as no party wants to be associated with his formation.
In any case, the triumph of the extreme right in Austria in Sunday’s elections has caused a political earthquake in the Central European country that opens a complex scenario of negotiations to form a new government.
Here are the keys to what is happening in Austria.
Who won the elections?
The winner of the elections was the right-wing Liberal Party (FPÖ), which reached 28.8% of the votes, 13 percentage points more than in the 2019 elections.
The FPÖ – founded in the mid-1950s by former Nazi officers – thus achieved its first victory in a general election.
The result, although expected, has caused a political earthquake in the country, where the two forces that have dominated national politics in the last eight decades, the Christian Democratic People’s Party (ÖVP) and the social democratic SPÖ, have suffered significant losses.
What happened to the traditional parties?
The ÖVP and SPÖ have been the main political forces in Austria, alternating in power since the end of World War II. But Sunday’s elections reflected the loss of influence of both.
The ÖVP, led by Karl Nehammer, lost 11 points, to 26.5% of the vote, in contrast to 37.5% in 2019. The ÖVP, which has been in government since 1986 and is burdened by various cases of corruption, was presented as the formation of “stability” and “moderation” in the face of the “extremism” of the FPÖ.
For its part, the SPÖ, under the leadership of Andreas Babler, barely reached 21.05%, which relegated it to third position, its worst historical result. The SPÖ is going through a leadership crisis, with territorial barons and part of the leadership questioning the leftist drift with Babler with the aim of reconnecting with the working class, something that did not end up working..
Why did the most radical right win?
The FPÖ, which has already capitalized on the protest vote in the past, took advantage of the discontent after five years of government between Christian Democrats and environmentalists.
Austria, despite being one of the richest countries in Europe, faces its worst economic crisis in decades, with a 1% contraction in 2023 and a projected fall of 0.8% by 2024.
Inflation has reduced purchasing power, while migration and the rising cost of living have become the electorate’s main concerns.
The FPÖ focused its campaign on these two issues, proposing the end of asylum policies and the expulsion of immigrants who do not integrate, as well as economic measures that prioritize nationals.
With an anti-immigration, eurosceptic and pro-Russian speech, The FPÖ presents itself as the option that defends those “forgotten” by the elites, capturing the rural vote and 50% of the workers’ vote..
Where did the FPÖ votes come from?
A large part of the FPÖ votes came from former voters of the ÖVP, which had greatly toughened its anti-immigration discourse to prevent precisely this transfer.
Some 443,000 voters who supported the ÖVP in 2019 switched to the FPÖ in this election, according to a study by public television ORF.
In total, The FPÖ managed to increase its number of votes from around 770,000 in 2019 to more than 1.4 million in 2023. 250,000 abstainers from 2019 also voted for it.
Are there differences between the urban and rural vote?
Yes, and very marked. The elections showed a clear division between the countryside and the city, according to the ORF study. The FPÖ consolidated itself in rural areas and small towns, surpassing the ÖVP, the traditional party of rural Austria, in many localities. In urban areas, however, the SPÖ was the most voted force, especially in large cities such as Vienna, Graz and Linz.
The FPÖ consolidates itself as the most voted among young people up to 34 years old and also among women, with 28%. This last point is an important change compared to the last elections, in 2019, when the vote for the far right was mostly male. Regarding education, the FPÖ has captured the majority of votes from people without higher education.
What are the possible coalitions?
The negotiations to form a government are predicted to be long and complicated. On average, negotiations in Austria have so far lasted 62 days, although in 2019, it was 100 days.
There are several options: one of them is between the FPÖ and the ÖVP. However, the chancellor and Christian Democrat leader, Karl Nehammer, has ruled out a coalition with the FPÖ under the leadership of Herbert Kickl, whom he considers a “danger to national security.” At the moment it seems unlikely that Kickl, strengthened by the victory, will not enter the Government to facilitate a coalition. Social Democrats, environmentalists and liberals do not want any type of pact with the FPÖ.
The other option is what in the past was the “grand coalition”, between ÖVP and SPÖ, although the latter would be very tight in terms of parliamentary majority since they would have 93 seats in a chamber of 183 deputies.
For the traditional parties to reissue the “grand coalition”, a common government formula in Austria for decades, would mean fueling the victimist discourse of the FPÖ and would also entail risks. A tripartite coalition is also being considered with the liberal NEOS as a third partner.
“Winner, and now?”, headlined the Kurier newspaper, referring to the fact that no one wants to ally with Kickl, 55, considered a too radical, with an anti-liberal and anti-European agenda, and who opposes sanctions against Russia.
The big question now is whether he will suffer the same fate as Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, who had to give up his prime ministerial ambitions, or the French National Rally (RN) party, sidelined by the Republican front.
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