According to polls in Florida, Donald Trump is losing approval. Intensive efforts in the Sunshine State could give Kamala Harris an advantage in swing states.
Washington, DC – The 2024 US election is getting closer. In November it will be decided whether the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris or the Republican Donald Trump wins the race for the US presidency. Many surveys paint a similar picture: there are signs of a neck-and-neck race.
The Democrats should therefore see one US state as a priority in the election campaign for the presidency – so as not to have to hand over 30 voters to the Republicans. Florida was a long-time swing state until Trump won the state twice. Now he is considered Republican. However, that could change.
Poll on the US election in Florida: Harris is catching up in the Republican state
A survey gives the Harris camp hope: it is moving within one percentage point of Trump. The Bullfinch Group and the Independent Center surveyed 600 registered voters. Accordingly, 48 percent of those surveyed said they wanted to vote for Donald Trump, while 47 percent wanted to vote for Kamala Harris.
The striking thing about the current survey from Florida: Like many surveys in the US election campaign, this one also has a margin of error of four percent. This means that the survey results could deviate from the actual voting decision by up to four percentage points in either direction. A possible reason for this could be that the sample size is too small. However, taking the margin of error into account, Harris could be not just one percentage point behind Trump in the election, but potentially up to five percentage points behind him or up to three percentage points ahead of him.
“Losses” for Trump: Republicans can win Florida – but at the same time lose in swing states
Florida will remain Republican, suspects Thomas Gift, professor of political science at the Center for US Politics at University College London. Nevertheless, Trump will not have it as easy as he hopes. “The very fact that Trump may have to campaign vigorously in Florida could drain resources from the real swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan,” Gift said Newsweek.
“Even if Harris loses Florida, which is entirely likely, it could cause Trump losses elsewhere if he is forced to devote scarce time, resources and energy to solidifying his lead in the Sunshine State,” he added.
Polls before US election: Harris is ahead in national polls
Looking at the country as a whole, however, Harris is ahead in the polls. According to the survey tracker of the guardian, Based on a series of surveys, Harris is at 48.2 percent – 3.8 percentage points ahead of Trump, at 44.4 percent. Recent surveys show clear trends in favor of the vice president. The fact that Harris’s lead in the national polls could grow, albeit narrowly, could prove significant.
Polls suggest Harris is likely to win a majority of the vote, something Democratic candidates have done in five of the last six presidential elections of the 21st century. However, Republicans narrowly won overall victory in two of these elections.
Swing states in the 2024 US election: According to polls, Harris leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin
This scenario may not occur again in November, said Nate Cohn, chief poll analyst New York Times. “There are growing signs of a surprising possibility: Trump’s once-large lead in the Electoral College may not be as solid as many thought. Instead, it could shrink,” explained the expert. “Judging by the New York Times polling averages, it doesn’t appear that Kamala Harris needs a large lead in the majority vote to win.”
The main reason for this is that Harris has narrow leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – three states that would be enough for her to reach the crucial 270 electoral votes. Trump, on the other hand, is doing better in states where his chances of winning are still slim than he was four years ago. (hk)
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