Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence is in Florida. Although the arch-conservative Ron DeSantis is governor there, Kamala Harris could win the state.
Miami – The US election is entering its hot phase: Since last week, voters have been able to cast their vote in person in Virginia, Minnesota and South Dakota Donald Trump or Kamala Harris hand over. Until the grand finale on November 5th, all states will open their polling stations step by step. In parallel to the actual voting, the efforts of the survey institutes are also in full swing. The latest survey from Florida revealed a surprise.
For the first time, Kamala Harris moved within one percent of Donald Trump in a poll in the southern state. The Bullfinch Group and the Independent Center surveyed 600 people who are registered to vote. Unlike in Germany, in the USA anyone who wants to cast their vote must be registered as a voter in advance. In some states there are high hurdles for this.
According to the poll before the US election in Florida, Harris is historically close to Trump
The remarkable thing about the current survey from Florida: Like many surveys in the US election campaign, it has a margin of error of four percent. This means that whoever conducts the survey admits that their result can deviate from the later voting decision by up to four percent in one direction or the other. A possible reason for this is, for example, that the sample size was too small.
48 percent of Florida respondents said they would vote for Donald Trump, while 47 percent said they would vote for Kamala Harris. If you take the four percent margin of error into account, according to the survey, Harris could not be one percentage point behind Trump in the US election, but up to five percentage points behind or even three percentage points ahead of him.
Florida used to be a swing state in the US election – will it be again?
Florida has made headlines in recent years with its arch-conservative nature Gov. Ron DeSantislike Trump, a member of the Republican Party, and his interventions in school education and his position on abortion rights. In addition, Trump himself settled there in Mar-a-Lago, his palatial estate including a golf club, and regularly received supporters and friends such as Benjamin Netanyahu and Viktor Orbán.
Nevertheless, the state, whose capital Miami is known for its beach, was a competitive swing state for a long time: in 1996, Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton was able to secure Florida and Barack Obama won the state in both 2008 and 2012. He only changed with Donald Trump in 2016 changed its color again from Democratic blue to Republican red and kept it in 2020.
Some Democrats are suspicious of Harris’ lead in the polls
Despite the favorable outlook for the Democrats in Florida for the first time in many years, it is only a snapshot. In their election campaign, Harris and Trump are primarily aiming for recognized swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The fact that the polls there have been showing Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump for some time now is worrying some Democrats. They fear that the numbers could change on election night.
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