The AfD has not become the strongest force – and yet the Brandenburg election has given almost all major parties food for thought.
The third state election in eastern Germany is also sending shock waves to Berlin: For two members of the traffic light coalition, the FDP and the Greens, the Brandenburg election was bitter. The AfD continues to give homework. And one year before the federal election, the SPD and CDU are facing unresolved questions. Five lessons from the Brandenburg election:
Pensioners and Woidke secure SPD success: The SPD was able to rely on the support of a core clientele in Brandenburg: it was precisely the pensioners, among whom the Social Democrats are finding less and less support nationwide, who secured the election victory in Brandenburg. According to an analysis by the research group Wahlen, the SPD was around twice as strong among the 60-plus generation at 43 percent as it was among those under 30 at 21 percent. No one was stronger among older voters.
The fact that the SPD came within reach of an election victory at all is probably due to the sharp escalation in the race with the AfD – and the leading figure Dietmar Woidke. “The voters want Dietmar Woidke to continue to be in government,” said Potsdam political scientist Peter Ulrich. IPPEN.MEDIAIn addition, Brandenburg’s state capital Potsdam is politically very far away from Berlin for the SPD: “In a certain sense, there is a separate SPD in Brandenburg that does its own thing,” explained Ulrich.
Brandenburg election shows neither “Merz” nor “Scholz effect”
A snail race threatens in the federal election campaign: Brandenburg was possibly the last “major” state election before the federal election in 2025 – only the Senate election in Hamburg will definitely take place before the ballot box. If there are no new elections. The two presumed candidates for chancellor, Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Friedrich Merz (CDU), did not spark any euphoria. And this despite the fact that Merz officially took over the candidacy for chancellor shortly before the Brandenburg election.
“There is no Merz effect, neither positive nor negative,” Munich political scientist Martin Gross told our editorial team. “It wasn’t necessarily a false start for Friedrich Merz. But it has become clear that his nomination as the CDU’s candidate for chancellor in the Brandenburg election did not play a major role,” explained his renowned Mainz colleague Jürgen Falter. The SPD had kept Scholz out of the Brandenburg election campaign anyway – but is dependent on the chancellor for the federal election. Falter, in any case, sees “no alternative” to Scholz.
Young voters favor AfD – other parties seem perplexed: The AfD was ahead among young voters in Brandenburg. The right-wing populists have 30 percent of the vote in this age group. No other party has more. It used to be the case that young people vote green, but that hasn’t just changed since Brandenburg. The Greens are losing more and more support among young people. According to the infratest dimap institute, the Greens have lost 20 percentage points among those aged 24 and under – they are now only at seven percent.
The AfD was also at just under 30 percent in the overall projections. Political scientist Werner Krause sees part of the problem in the focus on migration issues – and in the strategy of the other parties. “The issue of migration was also high on the agenda in the state election campaigns. We know that this is not detrimental to parties like the AfD, but in fact, if in doubt, it will actually drive voters into their arms,” he explained. IPPEN.MEDIA.
Brandenburg election and the lessons: Several parties on the brink – from FDP to the Left
FDP sinks into state political insignificance: The FDP has not been represented in the Brandenburg state parliament since 2014. The Free Democrats will also fail miserably to gain a seat in the 2024 election. They were listed among the “other parties” in all current projections and could end up with less than one percent. Falter sees a “bitter defeat” for the FDP.
“It is becoming increasingly clear that it is not worth it for the FDP to be in the traffic light government,” said Falter in an interview with IPPEN.MEDIA“Its supporters and increasingly also its members resent the fact that the party has to represent decisions in the coalition that do not correspond to the values of the FDP.” Some FDP leaders are already talking about an end to the coalition.
BSW could be a death blow for the left: The Left is losing more and more support in the East. For the first time, the former East German giant is leaving an East German state parliament. This is probably also due to the new alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht. The Left lost around 40,000 voters, according to ARD-Figures on voter migration to the BSW. The Left lost the second most votes to the SPD. Possibly because voters wanted to prevent the AfD.
“The Left has already lost in the past,” explained expert Ulrich – “and the BSW has now pulled the plug somewhat.” “Sahra Wagenknecht naturally appeals to Left voters with other priorities, for example peace policy and Ukraine issues,” he explained. With issues that are not really state-related, the BSW could now also get involved in the government in Brandenburg, depending on the final result: It seems possible that there is now a solid majority with Wagenknecht’s new party. A dilemma for Woidke. You can find the latest figures from Brandenburg in our ticker. (as/fn)
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