A majority without BSW? In Brandenburg, that seemed within reach. A grand coalition could be “attractive” – but election winner Woidke faces a dilemma.
Potsdam – The country has recently become accustomed to more or less hair-raising coalition debates: In Thuringia, for example, the CDU will have to deal with the “authoritarian-led” BSW in its search for a majority, and the situation is not much different in Saxony. Brandenburg election a very special note: Because a grand coalition seemed within reach on election night – but anything but certain. A few votes could make the difference.
It also seemed possible that the SPD and the defeated CDU would only be able to achieve a majority stalemate with 44 of the 88 seats. What then? The Potsdam political scientist Peter Ulrich considers a grand coalition to be attractive in principle, as he IPPEN.MEDIA said – but before the extremely close projections for later that evening were made public.
“A two-party coalition like a grand coalition is of course rare these days,” Ulrich stressed. The model, which was viewed critically after the years of Merkel’s grand coalitions, could now even satisfy a kind of longing, he believes. The alternative, however, would be an SPD-BSW-Alliance, that much seems certain. SPD election winner Dietmar Woidke quickly announced talks with the CDU on rbb – with regard to the BSW he was more reserved: “We have to wait and see how this develops in the next few hours,” was his first statement on the matter.
Brandenburg-GroKo would be “attractive” – but the coalition option is shaky
“I think people are longing for normality or stability to some extent,” said expert Ulrich, referring to a hypothetical grand coalition with a majority in the state parliament: “In that respect, that would certainly be a very attractive option.”
A decisive factor is the presumed exit of the Brandenburg Greens from the state parliament – the party quickly fell well below five percent in the projections. The Greens will probably also miss out on a direct mandate. Thanks to the basic mandate clause, this would have brought the party into parliament with parliamentary group strength.
The question could therefore be: Does Dietmar Woidke’s SPD want a predictable alliance with the CDU, even if it has to rely on votes from other parties or even (strategic) absences in the state parliament? A pact with a majority with Sahra Wagenknecht’s BSW? Or even a minority government in constant search of supporters? In any case, Ulrich pointed out the imponderables in the cooperation with the BSW.
BSW also in coalition in Brandenburg? “No one knows how the party works at all”
“The BSW is an absolute black box“, warned the political scientist at IPPEN.MEDIA: “You simply don’t know how the party would govern, how it works at all.” Participation in government for the BSW would be an option to prevent the AfD, which is also strong in Brandenburg, from playing a decisive role, said Ulrich. However, the BSW is only known from an “oppositional, anti-stance”. Such a model does not radiate stability – “neither internally nor externally”. What will happen in the end? Unclear. “We’ll have to wait and see,” said Ulrich early on election night. (fn)
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