Historically bad result for the CDU in Brandenburg. Is it due to Friedrich Merz and his candidacy for chancellor? Political experts assess the election result.
The CDU is heading for its worst result in a state election in eastern Germany. According to initial projections The Christian Democrats achieved less than twelve percent in the Brandenburg election. And this shortly after Friedrich Merz announced his candidacy for chancellor.
After the first forecast on ZDF, CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann spoke of a “bitter defeat, there is no sugarcoating it”. But who is to blame for this poor result?
CDU in Brandenburg election: “There is no Merz effect”
Political expert Dr. Martin Gross does not see Merz as responsible. “In the end, it was a state election. Federal politics or the appointment of Friedrich Merz did not play a major role,” says Gross in an interview with IPPEN.MEDIAHe is a private lecturer and academic advisor at the Geschwister Scholl Institute for Political Science at the LMU Munich and says: “There is no Merz effect, neither positive nor negative.”
Brandenburg election: SPD or AfD? “The CDU suffered as a result”
Political scientist Jürgen Falter from the University of Mainz also cannot see any “Merz effect”. “It was not necessarily a false start for Friedrich Merz. But it has become clear that his nomination as the CDU’s candidate for chancellor did not play a major role in the Brandenburg election. It was a very polarizing election campaign that clearly boiled down to the question: SPD or AfD? The CDU suffered as a result.” The federal CDU and Merz had no influence on the state election.
The poor performance is also due to the state CDU, says Gross from the LMU. “It was not a good election campaign with a leading candidate who no one knew at first and who then suddenly became very well-known when he was caught drunk on an e-scooter.” CDU frontman Jan Redmann was stopped by the police during the election campaign with a blood alcohol level of 1.3 per mille on an e-scooter.
CDU-Kretschmer campaigns for SPD in Brandenburg election: “normally leads to party committee proceedings”
According to Gross, it was already foreseeable that the CDU would not achieve a great result in Brandenburg. But that is not Merz’s fault, says the expert. “I would blame the result less on Friedrich Merz than on Michael Kretschmer.” Saxony’s CDU Prime Minister Kretschmann announced his support for SPD top candidate Dietmar Woidke a few days before the election. “Calling for another party to vote for someone else usually leads to other party members expelling themselves from the party,” says Gross. “I don’t think that will be accepted uncritically within the CDU.”
Brandenburg election: Grand coalition of SPD and CDU?
The state elections in the east are seen in Berlin as the last major mood test before the 2025 federal election. The CDU won the state elections in Saxony ahead of the AfD. In Thuringia, it came in well behind the right-wing populists, but will probably still provide the prime minister in the person of Mario Voigt. In Brandenburg, this is out of the question. The CDU is likely to remain in government, however. Together with the SPD, which, according to initial results, will win the election ahead of the AfD.
This could even be enough for a grand coalition between the SPD and CDU. A possible three-party coalition is otherwise a continuation of the “Kenya coalition” of the SPD, CDU and Greens (if the Greens enter the state parliament) or an alliance of the SPD, CDU and BSW. The recently founded “Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance” received more than twelve percent in its first Brandenburg election – and is therefore likely to be ahead of the CDU.
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