09/19/2024 – 17:48
On a day of lack of appetite for risk on the B3, disconnected from the surge in prices of assets listed in New York – especially technology (Nasdaq +2.51%), which are more sensitive to US interest rates in the short term –, the post-Copom sentiment prevailed on the Brazilian Stock Exchange, combined in a way with the post-Fed sentiment. There, doubts about recession have been left behind, and with milder signs about inflation, the expectation is that the US Central Bank will go ahead with the interest rate cuts – which in theory would benefit emerging markets like Brazil, and not just risk assets in the United States, as it did this Thursday.
Here, however, although a higher Selic rate has the potential to attract resources, especially for fixed income, the immediate focus on the Copom statement was an alert to the change in the BC’s view on the output gap, from neutral to positive, combined with the bullish asymmetry highlighted in the risk balance, observes Guilherme Jung, economist at Alta Vista Research.
Thus, the domestic interest rate curve advanced in the post-Copom period, with the market keeping a close eye on the Committee’s projection increase, albeit slight, in the estimate for the IPCA in the relevant horizon of monetary policy, until the first quarter of 2026. The whole work, in the statement, is of a Central Bank that is still hawkish in the transition of command that is approaching, at the end of the year. In this context, bets are advancing that the next two increases in the reference interest rate will be larger, of half a percentage point each, which would put the Selic at 11.75% at the end of the year – and reaching 12% already in the next meeting, in January 2025, as reiterated on the evening of Wednesday, the 18th, by XP economist Rodolfo Margato.
For the second day in a row, the Ibovespa closed this Thursday at the session’s low, down 0.47%, at 133,122.67 points, now at its lowest level since August 13. On Thursday, it fluctuated between the closing low and the high of 134,758.76 points, leaving the opening at 133,747.64. After the expiration of options on the Ibovespa the previous day, the financial turnover fell this Thursday to R$22.1 billion, converging to a level slightly above the recent average. In the week, the B3 index fell 1.30% and, in the month, it fell 2.12%. In the year, it has accumulated a loss of 0.79%.
On Thursday, the adjustment remained relatively contained because the stock with the largest weight in the Ibovespa, Vale ON, rose 1.20% – with iron ore rising in China during the session –, with a negative closing for large banks, such as Bradesco (ON -1.03%, PN -1.38%), and mixed for Petrobras (ON -0.30%, PN +0.33%) despite the rise of over 1.5% for Brent and WTI oil the day after the softening of US interest rates. On the winning side on Thursday, Marfrig (+4.32%), BRF (+4.20%) and Prio (+1.90%). On the opposite side, Brava (-9.40%), Assaí (-5.72%) and Hapvida (-4.08%).
“The market reacted very well to the start of interest rate cuts in the United States, and with a substantially milder dovish tone, the opposite of the hawkish tone of Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman,” says Matheus Falci, partner and advisor at One Investimentos. “As expected, Copom went against the Fed, with an increase in the Selic rate and a tougher tone in the statement, also emphasizing concern about the unanchoring of inflation expectations, which outlines the magnitude of the adjustment still expected for Brazilian monetary policy, going forward,” he adds.
“The Fed’s FOMC cut by half a percentage point and Copom raised by 0.25 percentage points yesterday. The US central bank’s decision was, in a way, a little less priced in than what was seen here. An opening in the domestic interest rate curve was expected in the coming days, before normalization comes,” says Camilla Dolle, head of fixed income at XP.
“Now is the time for investors to look at fixed income, which should attract more flow, including foreign ones, with the start of interest rate cuts in the United States, which benefits emerging markets – and Brazil still has discounted assets. Eventually, one should also look at some specific theses on the stock exchange, which can still attract foreign resources to segments such as banking and energy,” says Charo Alves, specialist at Valor Investimentos.
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