The US election is approaching and polls show a close race between Trump and Harris. But a political scientist warns against jumping to conclusions.
Washington, DC – The election campaign in the USA is in full swing. US polling institutes publish polls on the political duel between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris almost every day. But how reliable are these surveys? Christian Lammert, political scientist at the John F. Kennedy Institute, warns in an interview with merkur.de from IPPEN.MEDIAthat polls “generally only represent the current situation”. The prediction of what will happen in the US elections in November can “only be predicted to a limited extent or not at all”.
Expert assesses polls on US election: Harris “has the momentum on her side”
The importance of the polls is highly rated by both Democrats and Republicans. Donald Trump in particular uses his platform Truth Social to either boast about his lead over his opponent or to complain about what the audience said was his poor performance in the TV debate against Harris. Things are looking good for her at the moment: Joe Biden’s resignation has given the Democratic Party new momentum and Harris was able to hold her own against Trump in the TV debate. In some polls she is even ahead of the former president. Lammert agrees: Harris “has the momentum on her side.”
Nevertheless, the polls on the US election “neither influence the attitudes of citizens, nor can they mobilize voters or persuade them not to vote,” says Lammert. It is important to note who took part in the polls. Often “registered voters” are surveyed, but it is unclear whether they will actually vote. “Better polls ask ‘likely voters’, i.e. voters who have stated that they are likely to vote,” explains Lammert. This is where crucial differences become apparent.
Polls for the 2024 US election: Harris narrowly ahead of Trump in most swing states
The so-called swing states play a decisive role in the US election. While Biden was still the Democratic candidate, the picture was fairly balanced or rather pro-Trump. Harris is now ahead in most states – albeit only narrowly. This is where the margins of error come into play. Lammert emphasizes that the polls “in most cases have a margin of error of up to 4 percentage points.”
The smallest technical discrepancies can lead to an incorrect result. “If Harris is leading by one percentage point, that can ultimately mean a lead of up to five percentage points – or that Trump is leading by three percentage points,” explains Lammert. This must always be taken into account.
US election: Poll statistics trend could benefit Harris – is Trump at a disadvantage?
Lammert does not share the fear that Harris’ poll numbers could turn out to be a fallacy – similar to Hillary Clinton’s eight years ago. Despite her clear lead in the polls, Clinton narrowly lost the 2016 US election to Donald Trump. Trump secured his victory through successes in crucial swing states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which went to the republican went.
“The polls in 2016 weren’t that bad, they were just misinterpreted. Hillary Clinton won the election, at least in the popular vote, and that’s what the polls had predicted,” said Lammert. Many polls in the individual states were also “very accurate”; taking the “margin of error” into account. (Margin of error, editor’s note) the surveys were very close to the final result. However, the public and media debate could not “correctly classify” this.
Reliable polls require “good mathematical models that have to be continually adjusted.” This happened in 2016; the polls for the 2020 US election, however, were even more accurate. If Lammert is correct in his assessment, that would be good news for Kamala Harris with a view to November 5. (nak)
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