A new assassination attempt against Republican candidate Donald Trump shook American politics this Sunday (15), exactly 50 days before the presidential elections.
The new episode of violence investigated against the former president occurs two months after he was grazed in the ear at a rally in Pennsylvania by a 20-year-old gunman, increasing the climate of political uncertainty in the United States, with electoral polls indicating a technical tie with Democrat Kamala Harris.
Just like the first time, supporters of the former president blamed the Democrats for spreading hate speech against Trump, saying that a new administration by him would be a “threat to democracy.”
The candidate himself blamed the administration of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris this Monday (16) for the assassination attempt he suffered at his golf club.
“Their rhetoric is causing me to be targeted, when I am the one who is going to save the country, and they are the ones who are destroying the country — both from within and without,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News.
Republican strategist David Urban, a Trump ally, said Monday that it was too early to know how the episode might affect the coming days and weeks of the campaign, but in his conversations with people close to Trump, he was sensing a “profound sense of shock and uncertainty.”
In an interview with People’s GazettePhD in International Relations Igor Lucena stated that, despite a portion of American voters already being committed to one of the political axes – Democrats or Republicans – the new assassination attempt against former President Trump could generate positive effects for his campaign.
“This is a second assassination attempt. The first was very serious. This second event, then, may bring a feeling of empathy from voters. If he raises this question in the campaign, of why they are trying to kill him, he may get what he needs: the support of the undecided voters of what we call swing states (or pendulum states)”.
“If he [Trump] convince the American population that he is being attacked for defending the principles and division of America that he idealizes, he can garner votes with the speech that he is giving his life for the country”, added Lucena.
Despite this possibility, the analyst believes that this is not an exact science, and therefore, it is likely to result in other scenarios. “It is not an exact science, because when we talk about these numbers, there are 30,000 to 40,000 votes in each of these swing states to have a majority. It is very difficult to capture this exactly in the electoral polls, so much so that they appear to be very close.”
On the other hand, political analyst and professor of Public Policies and Institutional Relations at Ibmec Brasília Eduardo Galvão believes that these attacks could further increase the climate of polarization and political violence in the country.
“Investigating the causes [dos ataques]it is possible to identify an atmosphere of tension and radicalization that, in turn, can fuel new episodes of violence”, said Galvão.
The expert points out that, historically, the impact of events like this tends to be limited. “Especially if this effect has already been observed in previous attacks. The first attack may have generated a commotion effect, but the repetition of similar episodes often leads to a decrease in the emotional and political impact.”
Denilde Holzhacker, professor of International Relations at the Escola Superior de Propaganda e Marketing (ESPM), believes that the main impact of the latest attack against Trump will be the mobilization of the Republican base, actively using the event in the campaign, such as engagement on social media and political events.
After the first attack, on July 13, Trump gained the spotlight of the press and prominence among his supporters.
A week after the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania, at a rally, the former president increased the number of followers on the social network Instagram by one million, which indicates an increase in political strength.
At the time, the Republican’s advantage over his then opponent, Joe Biden, in the electoral polls was 52%, according to a CBS poll.
Despite significant growth after the attack, in July, the nomination of Kamala Harris to replace Biden in the presidential race took the focus away from the assassination attempt and a certain national unity, resuming political polarization in the United States.
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