Der Griff der italienischen Unicredit nach der Commerzbank beschäftigt das Bundesfinanzministerium stärker, als das von Christian Lindner (FDP) geführte Haus öffentlich eingestehen will. Seine Vertreter halten sich bedeckt, was das weitere Vorgehen betrifft. Das politische Tagesgeschäft läuft weiter, als wenn nichts gewesen wäre. Am Montagmorgen ist so ein Termin, der vor dem Hintergrund dessen, was in der vergangenen Woche passiert ist, Spannung verspricht – vor allem was die Beteiligten betrifft. Die Veranstaltung dreht sich um den darniederliegenden Verbriefungsmarkt in Europa. Es tritt auf: Heiko Thoms, für Europa, internationale Finanzpolitik und Finanzmärkte zuständiger Staatssekretär im Bundesministerium. In seinen Beritt fällt die Privatisierungsaktion, bei der Unicredit zugeschlagen hat, nachdem sich die italienische Bank zuvor am Markt ein nennenswertes Aktienpaket gesichert hatte. Nun hält Unicredit 9 Prozent an der Commerzbank. Zweiter Redner ist Manfred Knof, ihr Vorstandsvorsitzender. Das ist der Mann, mit dem die Commerzbank wieder gelernt hat, Geld zu verdienen, und der vergangene Woche angekündigt hat, keine zweite Amtszeit anzustreben.
Thoms quotes the economist Moritz Schularick: The state is not very good at finding tomorrow’s winners, but yesterday’s losers always find the state. And he points out that the vast majority of Europe’s future tasks must be financed privately. Keyword: real capital market union. That sounds like a certain openness to a cross-border takeover, even if the top official with FDP party membership does not say so. It was different when Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Jörg Kukies were in charge in the Finance Ministry; they would have preferred to create a national banking champion. As we know, that did not happen.
Knof also limited his speech to the securitization market. Later, on the sidelines of the event, he was quoted as saying: “We are confident in our own plan.” If someone presents a different plan, it will be examined, in the interests of investors, stakeholders, customers and employees. But nothing has been done yet. Meanwhile, everyone involved is waiting to see how the government will respond to the new major shareholder Unicredit, while Unicredit boss Andrea Orcel is promoting a merger with Commerzbank. Officially, Berlin is only saying that the federal government is assessing the new situation. The ministry spokeswoman confirms that the government did not actively approach any individual investor before the auction. The fact that Orcel speaks of contacts that did exist, on the other hand, is unlikely to be perceived in Berlin as a confidence-building measure.
Different perceptions are an element of this story. In Frankfurt, for example, there are serious indications that the Federal Ministry of Finance is irritated and annoyed with the German Finance Agency and the investment advisor it hired, the US bank JP Morgan. In Berlin, things sound a little different. There, the talk is more neutral, saying that they want to take another look at the whole process. But they believe their own room for maneuver is limited because they were under observation from Brussels and had to sell the shares without discrimination.
Opposition leader Friedrich Merz (CDU) nevertheless attacked the federal government harshly. “Everything that could go wrong has obviously gone wrong,” he said at the weekend. Questions arose that the government must answer. Did it have a plan? What does Unicredit’s entry into the second largest bank in Germany mean? Will the federal government explain to the bank (and in case of doubt also to the Italian government) that the entry was not desired?
Unicredit boss Orcel told the Handelsblatt that Unicredit had been “contacted by representatives of the Federal Ministry of Finance and their advisors at working level before the auction of the state share package.” This was certainly not the Federal Government’s request, according to the financial center. Many European banks have been turned down by the Federal Ministry of Finance in recent years. When the Ministry of Finance decided to gradually divest from the state share and began doing so on September 10, the aim was to distribute the shares widely. That is why the auction was chosen as the sales method. Unicredit was prepared to pay a price premium for the entire Commerzbank share. And that is how it happened.
It must be examined whether the Federal Finance Agency, which controls its capital market activities, did not correctly recognize Unicredit’s signals, according to sources close to the Federal Ministry of Finance. The role of JP Morgan must be examined in a similarly critical manner.
The US bank declined to comment on questions from the FAZ as to whether JP Morgan’s task was to approach strategic investors for the auction and whether it knew that Unicredit already owned 4.5 percent.
Investment bankers who were not involved in the sale consider it a failure of the Finance Ministry to specify a denomination. “The EU requirement of a non-discriminatory sale would also have been met if the Federal Finance Ministry had demanded that no shareholder receive more than 0.5 percent or one percent,” says one investment banker. In that case, however, less would have been available.
Little credence was given to a rumor on Monday that Deutsche Bank could spoil Unicredit’s plans. The purchase of Commerzbank shares on the market or the purchase of the state’s remaining 12 percent shareholding by Deutsche Bank could make it more difficult for Unicredit to gain a greater share in Commerzbank, Bloomberg reported, citing ideas put forward by Deutsche Bank boss Sewing and his team. The FAZ, on the other hand, heard speculation in financial circles that the federal government or JP Morgan could be trying to divert criticism of the outcome of the auction by spreading such rumors. Deutsche Bank did not want to comment on this, pointing out that Sewing had recently emphasized that he wanted to focus on strengthening Deutsche Bank without making any acquisitions.
The shareholder representatives on the Commerzbank supervisory board, which met on Friday for a telephone call lasting around an hour, according to information from the FAZ, are neutral. The prevailing mood was that the new reality must be accepted. The employee representatives, on the other hand, appeared united in their rejection of the new major shareholder. As Commerzbank announced on the same day, Unicredit owns 7.3 percent of its shares and has secured access to a further 1.9 percent with the help of derivatives.
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