The PSOE of Andalusia, the federation with the most members, is already in congress mode. But not only that. It is also in a stage of uncertainty where nothing is taken for granted or closed until it is. Adversative prepositions are used a lot and the expressions “it is not ruled out”, “it is being considered”, “that is unlikely, but not ruled out”, “I don’t think so, but it is only a belief”, “everything is possible” are repeated, which contribute to enormous imprecision. The 41st Federal Congress to be held in Seville from November 29 to December 1 opens a cascade of regional, provincial and local congresses throughout Spain, except Catalonia. In the case of Andalusia, as in the rest of the federations, it has to be held before the deadline of February 23, a month marked by the events of Andalusia Day, but there is still no approved calendar. There are leaders who are beginning to make their moves.
For now, what is known is that the current general secretary, Juan Espadas, who has been in office for just over three years, has decided to aspire to a new mandate and to be again (in another primary) a candidate for the presidency of the Junta Andalucía, an institution governed by Juan Manuel Moreno’s PP for almost six years. He has said this in all possible forums (behind closed doors and in public) for months. The last time, at the meeting held by the regional executive on the 6th, without this pronouncement generating applause in a mammoth body made up of 68 members, perhaps because they already knew his position.
Espadas took over a party that had been accustomed to winning or forming coalitions since the first regional elections in 1982, which allowed it to continue at the head of the Junta, until the elections in 2018. The PSOE won, but the centre and far-right political forces (PP, Ciudadanos and Vox) added more and the Andalusian Government was lost. One leader compares it to the sinking of the ‘Titanic’. It took two and a half years for the last socialist tenant of San Telmo, Susana Díaz, to realise that she could not continue and it was the federal leadership that brought about her replacement by the then mayor of Seville.
It is now unknown whether Ferraz is involved in a similar manoeuvre, beyond the concern expressed by the general secretary of the PSOE and president of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, in the federal executive about the situation in Andalusia and the Community of Madrid after the European elections last June. These elections marked the fourth consecutive electoral defeat for the Andalusian PSOE after the 2022 regional elections and the 2023 municipal and general elections.
For now there is no alternative to Espadas in sight, despite the doubts generated by his leadership, as there is a broad consensus that the Andalusian federation cannot continue as it is. “Now is the time,” said the secretary general of the PSOE in Seville, Javier Fernández de los Ríos, on Monday, challenging critics to present an alternative to Espadas. “We cannot be rethinking the leadership we had chosen every day. Anyone who considers that the path has not been the right one up to now should step forward from the legitimacy and statutes of the PSOE,” added the president of the Provincial Council of Seville. The leadership of the PSOE in Seville, the group with the most members, is closing ranks with Espadas.
Only the election of María Jesús Montero would put the Andalusian PSOE in battalion formation behind the first vice president of the Government, Minister of Finance and deputy general secretary of the PSOE. She, according to close sources, does not contemplate it and some leaders see it as “desirable but unlikely.” The agreement on singular financing for Catalonia signed by ERC and the PSC, endorsed by the Treasury, gives Moreno’s PP the possibility of putting lead in the wings of the Sevillian in a community where the grievance spreads like dry stubble. Espadas has supported the agreement that has made possible the investiture of Salvado Illa as president of the Generalitat and maintains that Andalusia should aspire to the same as Catalonia.
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Luis Ángel Hierro, who heads a sector critical of Espadas and who has already presented himself as a candidate in the primaries for the presidency of the Junta, does not rule out trying again: “I hope that there are enough candidates so that we do not have to repeat what happened in the last few. Although some people insist on stumbling over the same stone in order to remain in the limelight and not be wasted. In this life everything is possible. What I would like is for an integrative and majority alternative with an Andalusian identity to be formed. Events will tell,” he affirmed to EL PAÍS.
The Andalusian congress has no date, but holding it in December is ruled out due to the long weekends and Christmas. Before all that, the socialists will have to choose the provincial delegations that will attend the 41st Federal Congress, where there could be skirmishes prior to the provincial congresses that should be finished by June 2025 at the latest. When asked about the division into two lists, a leader said: “I don’t think so, but in this case, I just think so.”
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