Despite a wave of corruption cases that have grabbed headlines, the harsh truth is that Most Latin American governments have relegated the anti-corruption measures to the background, to a lower priority in recent years, while voters have been less active and have mobilized little around the issue.
According to the criteria of
With a few exceptions – such as in Guatemala last August – anti-corruption promises no longer define Latin American elections. This is especially true in the two most populous countries in the region, Brazil and Mexico, which in the last decade showed glimmers of hope through high-profile corruption investigations such as Operation Car Wash. More recently, however, they have had to contend with entrenched corruption and limited political will to address the problems associated with it.
In the last five yearsboth countries have faced a particularly troubled path in the fight against corruption, as measured by the ‘Combating Corruption Capacity Index’ (CCC), published jointly by Control Risks and Americas Society/Council of the Americas (which publishes AQ).
The index evaluates and classifies 15 Latin American countries depending on their ability to detect, punish and prevent corruption. In the ‘CCC Index 2023’, Brazil’s score stabilized just above the regional average, while Mexico’s fell for the fourth consecutive year (the next edition of the ‘CCC Index’ will be published in 2025). In both countries, the rhetoric against corruption has proven to be stronger than his ability to combat it.
Since the ‘CCC Index’ was launched in 2019the region’s track record in the fight against corruption has been under stress. Attention has shifted to other issues, such as the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent economic recovery, rising crime and, in some cases, democratic backsliding.
Recent events related to corruption highlight worrying trendsfrom accusations that high-profile investigations are politically motivated to key appointments that risk derailing anti-corruption efforts.
At the same time, collaboration between the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and its law enforcement counterparts in Latin America remains solid and narrow.
Examples include the DOJ’s Anti-Corruption Task Force aimed at combating corruption in Central America, launched in 2021, and partnerships between the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Brazil, Colombia and EcuadorWhile these efforts demonstrate a certain level of interest in prosecuting white-collar crimes, they are insufficient to reverse the trend toward stagnation in the fight against corruption in the region.
Brazil stumbles
The anti-corruption agenda in Brazil gained strength in 2014after a multi-million dollar corruption scandal came to light that led to the operation Car WashIn 2015, Brazilian pollster Datafolha showed that for the first time, voters said that corruption was the country’s biggest problem.
On the contrary, the most recent surveys indicate that the economy and violence are the two main concerns of Brazilians, with corruption now occupying fifth place.
Former President Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022) was elected with an anti-corruption platformwhich remained the main concern of voters at the time. However, the Lava Jato investigation was dismantled under his administration. Bolsonaro’s attempts to shield his children and inner circle from corruption investigations by meddling in the federal police were also a significant blow to the the country’s efforts to prevent and combat corruption. (Bolsonaro denied any improper interference with the investigation.)
He still faces dozens of investigations, including an alleged conspiracy to incite an uprising after losing the 2022 presidential election.
In June 2023, the Electoral Court banned him from running in the elections until 2030 due to the use of the state television channel and official meetings with diplomats for promote his candidacy for reelection and sow distrust around the vote.
While the Supreme Court declared the opaque practice of the “secret budget” unconstitutional in 2022, negotiations between the Executive and Legislative branches are still strongly conditioned to clientelist practices.
The distribution and use of federal funds by legislators are carried out with little oversight or transparency, which creates fertile ground for corruption.
Still, the ‘CCC Index 2023’ recorded improvements in the score for Brazil’s democracy and political institutions, reflecting its resilience despite several years of acute tensionand in particular the effective institutional response to the riots of 8 January 2023.
However, the current administration is not prioritizing an anti-corruption agenda. Instead, the focus is on economic and environmental issues, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has openly criticized Operation Car Wash.
He proposed to modify the Law on State Enterprises to allow political appointments in high-level positions in state-owned companies, which raised alarm bells about the risk that these entities could be managed for political gain short-term over long-term sustainability.
In March of this year, the Supreme Court upheld the restrictions to the appointment of politicians in these companies, but ruled that appointments made since the law was suspended in March 2023 remain valid.
Mexico descends
In 2023, Mexico fell below the regional average in the legal capacity category of the index. This reflected the Stagnation of anti-corruption efforts under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo), despite his election on an anti-corruption platform.
Through Amlo’s Fourth Transformation agenda, his administration has attempted to weaken or dismantle institutions that serve as checks and balances on governmental power, as well as the control agencies charged with report corrupt practices.
Major cases of corruption remain unresolved; The federal government has frequently attacked civil society organizations and journalists; and the Attorney General’s Office has taken politically motivated measures, particularly at the state level, where governors are often accused of interfere with investigations corruption, deciding who is investigated and the speed with which investigations proceed.
As Amlo’s term draws to a close, these problems have become more pronounced, leading to concerns about the future of the fight against corruption in Mexico.
If approved, the judicial reform proposed by Amlo will allow the selection of judges through the popular vote. The popularity of the ruling Morena party is likely to extend to any of its potential candidates for the judiciary, allowing the party to extend its reach to all three branches of government and potentially protect themselves from corruption investigations.
President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, who will take office on October 1, will inherit a system with deep roots in corruptionwhich has been exacerbated by political interference and budget cuts to anti-corruption agencies. Despite this scenario, it seems that, for now, Amlo’s approach on this front will continue.
The road ahead
Sheinbaum will undoubtedly face significant challenges on the anti-corruption front. She plans to create a Federal Anti-Corruption Agency, which will depend on the Executive. This dependence is likely to undermine his effectiveness in fighting corruption. This is not to say that moderate improvements are impossible during his term, but at least in his first year, tangible results are doubtful.
In Brazilmeanwhile, the prevalence of opaque mechanisms for the distribution of funds and political appointments in exchange for support in Congress will continue making a dent in the environment of integrity.
On the positive side, however, the continued strengthening of Brazil’s Public Prosecutor’s Office and Federal Police, which have played a pivotal role in investigating recent corruption cases and punishing corrupt actors, may produce improvements in the coming years.
The Federal Police has led Most of the research involving Bolsonaroand the Prosecutor’s Office is leading several corruption investigations involving mayors in Brazil.
While a dramatic deterioration in the ability to Mexico and Brazil to combat corruption over the next year, significant improvements seem far away.
Anti-corruption measures will remain on the back burner as the governments give priority to other issues. This stagnation in anti-corruption efforts has led to the progressive weakening of the corporate compliance culture in the largest economies in the world. Latin America.
This exposes companies to greater integrity risks, although Corruption will not be an insurmountable obstacle for future business operations and investments in these countries. For the private sector, the security situation in Mexico and Brazil’s tax burden will continue to be the main challenges.
AUTHORS: MARINA PERA
And VALERIA VASQUEZ (**)
AMERICAS QUARTERLY
MEXICO CITY
Political risk analyst at Control Risks.
#Anticorruption #efforts #Latin #America #decline