On Saturday night, September 7, it was learned that the winning candidate of the Venezuelan elections of July 28 had gone into exile in Spain. The expulsion of Edmundo González Urrutia was a matter of time, but it is still surprising and raises several questions about what lies ahead for Venezuela.
Can Nicolás Maduro steal an election with impunity? How can the fight for the restoration of democracy be reconfigured? Is this episode perhaps a déjà vu of the turbulent political history of the South American country? Is this game over?
The information about González Urrutia’s departure was provided by Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, through her personal Instagram account (it should be remembered that Maduro suspended the use of social media X). The official assured that “the proper safe-conducts were granted for the sake of the tranquility and political peace of the country” (sic).
In Venezuela, the metaphor of Groundhog Day has long been used, referring to the movie in which the protagonist is trapped in the same day, repeating it over and over again. The image was applied to the opposition, which constantly took shortcuts in its strategy and consequently failed time after time. However, in 2024, democratic forces came together to participate in an election with no guarantees of integrity, but with a great chance of success.
In this way, the spell of the time loop was symbolically broken. However, winning was not enough. Publishing the results and establishing an advocacy strategy in the international community have not yet yielded results.
González Urrutia’s exile in Spain can be read in several ways: it represents an exercise of power by Maduro, but at the same time it clearly marks that from January, when the new constitutional period must begin, if the Chavista leader assumes a third term, he will be a president de facto.
Moisés Durán, who was an official in one of Hugo Chávez’s governments, comments: “González Urrutia was subjected to tremendous pressure. His departure from the country, of course, has an internal impact, but it is not a determining factor in continuing the struggle. Furthermore, this fact speaks very badly of the government. The fact that an official spokesperson announces that they are granting a safe-conduct pass for an elected president to go into exile demonstrates the nature of the political regime he serves. People who live in a democracy do not go into exile, and even less so after being elected president.”
In the country, almost everything has been tried, legal and not, to remove Chavismo from power. From the coup against Chávez in 2002, to the electoral boycott —on several occasions—, until 2019 when an “interim government” was established, parallel to that of Nicolás Maduro, which never had the capacity to manage the territory, but did have assets and accounts of the Venezuelan State abroad.
Negotiations have also been attempted. The most recent attempt, the Mexico roundtable, started in 2021, was paralyzed shortly after and was resumed in 2023 to make room for the Barbados Agreement, which is itself the result of the Doha (Qatar) bilateral agreement reached between the Maduro and Biden administrations.
In 2019, the interim government was accepted by some 60 countries, led by the United States. In December 2022, this body was dismantled. Its mantra: a transitional government, an end to the usurpation and free elections did not materialize. The country was also subjected to international sanctions, some of them sectoral.
Guaidó went into exile in April 2023. With his departure, it was assumed that Maduro would remain in power for about six more years, through a procedural election. The government made progress on a pact with the United States to ease sanctions. One of its objectives was to regain international recognition.
Similarly, some factors were preparing to cohabit with Maduro’s government, under a neoliberal economic policy, inspired, according to officials, by the Chinese model. One example of this pragmatism has been the relationship with Chevron, facilitated by the relaxation of sectoral sanctions by the United States. Another example is dollarization. de facto of the Venezuelan economy.
But extraordinary things always happen in this country. The election of July 28 was one of them. An unthinkable feat a year ago, under the leadership of María Corina Machado, who made progress amidst the resentments of a fragmented opposition and co-opted sectors.
Maduro’s decision to steal the presidential election has led to a major setback. He has not been recognized by democratic governments and the United States is preparing to apply new sanctions, “on many more than 15 officials” according to Ambassador Francisco Palmieri, head of the United States office for Venezuela, who told us in an interview.
In recent days, the Venezuelan government has also besieged the Argentine Embassy in Caracas, where members of Machado’s team are sheltering, and has unilaterally withdrawn from Brazil the representation of the interests of the southern country.
The shadow of the interim government has been present in the various discussions of the international community, hence the caution that has existed regarding granting recognition as president-elect to González Urrutia.
However, unlike that time, this time the Maduro government has resorted to worse practices.
María Corina Machado explains on her X account that the life of the 75-year-old diplomat “was in danger, and the increasing threats, summons, arrest warrants and even attempts at blackmail and coercion to which he has been subjected, demonstrate that the regime has no scruples or limits in its obsession with silencing him and trying to subdue him.”
For Tamara Taraciuk, director of the Peter D. Bell Program on the Rule of Law at the Inter-American Dialogue, González Urrutia’s exile is a new call to the international community to open its eyes: “This is like a game of chess, what has happened is that some pieces have been moved. The regime will want to present it as a victory for them, when it is far from being a checkmate. In essence, the circumstances remain the same. The opposition won, the regime does not present evidence. What has happened is a reflection of the increase in repression, which is what they do best. At the same time, it is an alarm signal for the international community, which cannot continue waiting to see how the situation in Venezuela evolves. Both the departure of González Urrutia, as well as the incidents at the Argentine Embassy show that the regime is willing to do anything. This is the moment to wake up and increase the pressure on those who are today acting as if they could act with impunity without any consequences. Time only benefits Maduro.”
September 7 was a sad day for democracy, not only in Venezuela, but in the world. It was also a day that once again demonstrated the attitude of the Maduro government, and this forces democrats to act accordingly.
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