Anderthalb Stunden haben die Leute auf dem „Familienfest“ in der Sonne auf den Star der Rechts-außen-Partei gewartet. Ein paar andere AfD-Politiker haben das Publikum angeheizt, eine wasserstoffblonde Dame im Rentenalter hat im Halb-Playback Schlager von Kampf und Liebe geschmettert. Versammelt haben sich düster dreinschauende ältere Herren und muskulöse Mannsbilder mit schwarzen T-Shirts, auf denen etwa „Rechtsrock 100%“ steht. Aber beileibe nicht nur. Früher seien nur „alte weiße Männer wie ich“ da gewesen, sagt Höcke zu Beginn seines Auftritts, jetzt aber grüße er die Frauen und vielen Jugendlichen.
Hunderte Zuhörer nur bei Björn Höcke und Sahra Wagenknecht
Die AfD ist in Thüringen quasi Volkspartei. Wenige Tage vor der Wahl am Sonntag liegt sie in den Umfragen bei 30 Prozent. Sahra Wagenknechts BSW liegt zehn Prozentpunkte dahinter. Jeder zweite Wähler in Thüringen wird demnach AfD oder BSW wählen. Und so könnte das kleine Thüringen mit seinen 2,1 Millionen Einwohnern die Bundespolitik verändern, bis hin zu weltpolitischen Auswirkungen. Darauf hoffen zumindest die Populisten aller Ränder. Und die Chancen, dass es gelingt, stehen nicht schlecht. Die Ampelparteien SPD, Grüne und FDP kommen laut Umfragen in Thüringen auf nicht mehr als zwölf Prozent – zusammen wohlgemerkt. Höcke und Wagenknecht sind die beiden einzigen Politiker im Thüringer Wahlkampf, zu denen Hunderte Zuhörer kommen. Der AfD-Chef bereist vor allem die Kleinstädte im ländlichen Raum, Wagenknecht hat sich für ihre Auftritte größere Städte ausgesucht. Omnipräsent ist sie ohnehin durch die großflächigen Wahlplakate.
Auf dem Marktplatz von Bad Frankenhausen hält Höcke, wenige Tage vor der Absage einer Radio- und Fernsehdebatte am Mittwoch, eine Rede voller Anklagen und Drohungen. Die Ärmel des weißen Hemds leicht hochgekrempelt, schimpft er auf die „Kartellparteien“, die „antideutsch“ seien, und gegen die Redakteure des öffentlich-rechtlichen Rundfunks, die „praktisch alle gekauft“ seien. Einen großen Teil der Rede nimmt die Corona-Pandemie ein. Höcke stellt sie als Versuch des Staats dar, die Bürger zu unterdrücken. Es habe keine wissenschaftliche Grundlage gegeben, um die Freiheitsrechte einzuschränken. Von den Corona-Toten spricht er nicht. „Das hat die Qualität eines Staatsverbrechens“, ruft Höcke unter dem Jubel seiner Anhänger. Er werde nicht ruhen, bis die Verantwortlichen vor Gericht stünden. „Und Lauterbach muss nicht nur zurücktreten, er muss in Handschellen abgeführt werden“, droht Höcke dem Gesundheitsminister in Berlin.
Auch die mehr als 200 Gegendemonstranten, die sich einige Hundert Meter entfernt auf einer Wiese versammelt haben, hat Höcke im Blick. „Der linksextreme Sumpf wird unter einer AfD-Regierung trockengelegt“, kündigt er an. „Es wird heißen: Antifa in die Produktion!“ Wieder großer Jubel.
Höcke sagt: „Es war nicht alles schlecht in der DDR“
Dann kommt Höcke auf das Attentat in Solingen zu sprechen. Er macht dafür alle verantwortlich, die immerzu von Vielfalt redeten. Übergriffe gegen Frauen im Schwimmbad, Massenvergewaltigungen, Zerstückelungen durch mit Macheten Bewaffnete – Höcke bringt alles zusammen, um klarzumachen, dass „Multikulti-Gaga“ endlich gestoppt werden müsse.
Zwar hat es bisher keine Umfragen in Thüringen nach der Tat von Solingen gegeben. Aber es könnte sein, dass die AfD durch den Anschlag noch mehr Stimmen bekommt als bisher vorausgesagt. Dann könnte sie ein Drittel der Sitze im Landtag und damit eine Sperrminorität erreichen. Sie könnte Änderungen der Verfassung blockieren sowie die Wahl von Verfassungsrichtern und die Auflösung des Landtags. Und auch die Wahl von Mitgliedern des Richterausschusses und der Parlamentarischen Kontrollkommission, die den Verfassungsschutz kontrolliert, braucht eine Zweidrittelmehrheit.
The AfD has responded in its own way to the debate about skilled workers from abroad, which Thuringia, which is aging and suffering from emigration, urgently needs. “We make our skilled workers ourselves,” it says with a photo of four feet sticking out from under a blanket. In his speech, Höcke calls for a demographic turnaround: for every new-born child in Thuringia, there should be 10,000 euros, the state should give families a loan to build a house, and with each child, less should be paid back. We know that from the past. “Not everything was bad in the GDR,” says Höcke.
At the end, he almost dutifully brings up the war against Ukraine. “We don’t want to be dragged into a war with Russia by crazy Western elites,” he shouts. And we don’t want to become a target country in a nuclear war by stationing new medium-range missiles. After a good hour, the speech ends and a line forms of people who want to take selfies with Höcke and shake his hand.
One day later, around 300 people gathered in a square in Jena-Lobeda, a satellite town from the GDR era. Here, at the prefabricated buildings on Karl-Marx-Allee, there is no beer or bratwurst, but two people carry peace flags. The event is called “Sahra is coming”. But first Patrizia Hertlein, the local candidate for the BSW, speaks. The 35-year-old married mother of two is one of only six direct candidates for the BSW in Thuringia and is completely new to politics. She decided to join the BSW because of the “militarization” of Germany, which has been taking place since the decision on the 100 billion special fund for the Bundeswehr. She also mentioned the 40,000 dead civilians in the Gaza Strip, but not the terror of Hamas. The AfD also wants to be a peace party, but it is against domestic peace. “Höcke, he divides, that is poisoning with hate,” says the BSW candidate.
Wagenknecht wants to achieve new federal elections
Meanwhile, the politician who is heralded as “the most prominent face of Thuringia” is here. Sarah Wagenknechtwho grew up in Jena, makes it clear straight away where her party is headed. “Only one percent behind the CDU: There’s still room for improvement!”, she comments on the latest poll, in which the Union is at 21 percent and the BSW at 20. Thuringia’s top candidate Katja Wolf, who is not there because of a television appearance, could even become Minister President. “That would be something!” calls Wagenknecht, spreading her arms. She too declares that Sunday’s election will be a vote that will reach beyond Thuringia. It is not just about a good government for the state, but also about “putting this unspeakable traffic light coalition into retirement and calling new elections”.
Wagenknecht castigates Scholz, Habeck, Baerbock and Lauterbach, declaring the government’s policies to have failed in every area. It is the usual speech until she comes to Solingen. Even well-integrated immigrants told her that things cannot continue like this. “Anyone who opposes our culture, who only exploits the welfare state, has no place here.”
As with Höcke, the topic of war and peace comes right at the end. Wagenknecht makes the most of it, and it brings her the most applause. Even as a child during the Cold War, she was afraid that atomic bombs would fall. Then the fear eventually went away, but now it’s back. Who started the war in Europe is not mentioned. Instead: You can’t end a war by supplying more and more weapons. And it is “extremely dangerous” to set up new missiles. They could be used for a surprise attack. “And then someone in the Kremlin presses the button preemptively.”
The mood in the East is already having an impact on federal politics, says Wagenknecht in conclusion. The election on Sunday will help decide “whether missiles will arrive and whether weapons will continue to be delivered.” A long line of fans also forms next to Wagenknecht’s stage. A man in a wheelchair hands her an orchid, another a bouquet of red roses.
This afternoon, only a few Ukrainians themselves offered a different view of Russia’s war against Ukraine. On the other side of the stage, some Ukrainian women held a mini demonstration with their country’s flags. “Stop the Russian war of aggression!” and “Stop the dictator!” they shouted. “Are they being paid?” asked a middle-aged man. He spent some time in Russia years ago and is convinced that the Americans are behind the war in Ukraine.
The CDU’s attempt to catch up is not successful
Only the CDU can still keep up with the populists. Its leader Mario Voigt has opted for a strategy that promises success: me or Höcke, CDU or AfD. Five years ago, Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow from the Left Party was successful with this course, as were Michael Kretschmer (CDU) in Saxony and Dietmar Woidke (SPD) in Brandenburg. But Voigt is not Prime Minister, he first had to become a challenger. This seemed to be succeeding at the start of the election campaign, when Voigt made himself known nationwide in the TV duel against Höcke, impressing even skeptics with his clear point victory. The local elections also went well for the CDU, with the AfD at least not being able to put forward a district administrator or mayor.
But the race to catch up does not seem to be successful, unless the opinion research institutes are completely wrong. In the polls, the CDU is between 21 and 23 percent. Five years ago, it achieved 21.7 percent, its worst result since reunification.
Voigt apparently did everything right. He presented an election manifesto, a government program and a group of experts as an expanded shadow cabinet. He tried to take the wind out of the AfD’s sails and called for deportations to Syria weeks ago. And he invited all the CDU bigwigs to the election campaign, especially Friedrich Merz, but also Carsten Linnemann, Markus Söder and Hendrik Wüst.
But the CDU candidate finds it difficult to have an impact beyond his supporters. This is also evident in an appearance together with Merz in the yard of a car dealership in Erfurt. There are bratwursts, beer and minced meat rolls, “because we are all from Thuringia,” as the car dealership owner says. The evening seems like a closed CDU event, everyone stays among themselves, 90 percent of the visitors are men. Voigt speaks about migration, about education, rails against the traffic light coalition, against the alleged end of the combustion engine. At the end of the speech he says suddenly: “We are the guarantee that Björn Höcke has no chance here.”
Voigt has repeatedly attacked Höcke in the TV rounds. At one point he referred to the AfD’s failure on migration issues in the district of Sonneberg, where it has the only district administrator. At the beginning of the week he attacked Höcke for wishing that the 40 companies that had called for a “pluralistic, open, European-oriented society” would “experience serious, serious economic turbulence”. Höcke spoke of lies, but Voigt had quoted everything correctly. But that hardly causes any excitement in Thuringia.
Voigt’s alliance options are limited
Voigt does not have the close combat skills of a Michael Kretschmer. Perhaps the circles that support the Union in Thuringia, such as businesspeople, are too small. From the beginning of the election campaign, Voigt said that he would not form a coalition with either the AfD or the Left. He can refer to the CDU’s incompatibility resolution. The BSW, for which no such resolution exists, could be a way out. But Voigt cannot advertise this alliance option. The red Sahra is too unpopular with CDU voters, who still remember the diva from the Communist Platform well. Wagenknecht’s conditions of not entering into a coalition with parties that accept arms deliveries to Ukraine and the stationing of US medium-range missiles make such an alliance difficult, if not impossible.
In addition, the CDU and BSW could have fewer seats together than the AfD and the Left after Sunday’s election. The SPD could come to the rescue. It could provide a majority in Thuringia and Saxony, as the FDP once did in the old Federal Republic system, always in a two-party coalition with the CDU or SPD. But governing with two left-wing partners would be problematic for the CDU.
In addition to the AfD, CDU and BSW, the Left Party will also be represented in the Erfurt state parliament. In surveys, it is at 13 to 14 percent. It has Bodo Ramelow to thank for this. If the Prime Minister were elected directly, he would still be ahead with 47 percent. He wants a majority government and will do everything he can to ensure that whoever has the majority begins talks with all democratic parties. “The whole republic is already acting as if Thuringia is going under,” said Ramelow. But the election of a new Prime Minister in Thuringia could be difficult. The democratic forces have become entrenched over the last few years, and there is mistrust between the camps. The AfD could request a quick election to give the other parties little time to reach an agreement. But it could also do the opposite: give them plenty of time to fall apart.
On Tuesday, Ramelow spoke at the government’s last press conference before the election. And he pointed out, seemingly in passing, that he would initially remain in office as prime minister in an acting capacity after the election. Ramelow said: “We will manage the affairs of this country until a new government is elected.” Article 75 of the Thuringian constitution even obliges the head of government and the ministers to continue to run the business until a successor takes office. The constitution does not provide for a limit on this.
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