The United States’ decision to officially recognize, on Thursday night (1st), that the opposition candidate in Venezuela, Edmundo González, won the presidential elections last Sunday (28), puts pressure on Brazil, which still prefers to wait for the poll reports to take a position.
According to sources linked to the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), the internal assessment is that the note from the United States “has a clear impact” on the Venezuelan situation, but that this should not change the Brazilian position, expressed in a joint statement with Mexico and Colombia this Thursday (1st).
Behind the scenes at the Planalto Palace, there is a fear that the Americans’ recognition of González’s victory will not contribute to dialogue between the Nicolás Maduro regime and the Venezuelan opposition, nor to the publication of the voting records by the National Electoral Council (CNE), which Brazilian diplomacy has demanded.
The new stance of the US government, expressed on social media by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, contrasts with the joint statement by the presidents of Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, released hours earlier, giving dictator Nicolás Maduro a new chance to prove his declared victory.
On his X social media account, Blinken stated that “the electoral data overwhelmingly demonstrates the will of the Venezuelan people: the candidate of the democratic opposition obtained the largest number of votes.” The statement signed by Lula, in turn, states that “disputes over the electoral process must be resolved through institutional means” and that there must be “impartial verification of the results.”
Maduro tried to counter the White House’s message, saying that the US government intends to replace his country’s electoral authority. “The US must keep its nose out of Venezuela, because the sovereign people are the ones who govern in Venezuela, who appoint, who choose,” he said.
Venezuela’s electoral authority declared Maduro the winner of the election in the early hours of Monday (29), but the result was questioned by the opposition, independent observers and many heads of state.
Amorim says Venezuelan opposition has not proven victory
On Thursday morning (1st), Celso Amorim, Lula’s special advisor and one of Brazil’s interlocutors with the Chavista regime, simply expressed “surprise” at the delay by the Venezuelan National Electoral Council (CNE) in publishing the minutes with the election results, which Brazil and other countries have been demanding since the beginning of the week.
“We are disappointed with the CNE’s delay in publishing the data,” he said in an interview with Rede TV. He also stressed that the Venezuelan opposition has not yet proven victory. The comment was made before the United States announced its recognition of the opposition’s victory.
Amorim also downplayed the Carter Center’s opinion after following the electoral process in Venezuela, released on Tuesday (30) and in which it states that the election “was not democratic” and “did not meet international standards of integrity”. For him, although the independent body is not manipulated, as its long history shows in several cases, the number of observers sent, 17, was insufficient.
Finally, the diplomat defended Lula’s position in asking for caution, waiting for the presentation of the minutes to recognize Maduro’s victory. “The burden of proof lies with the person who is the object of suspicion,” he argued.
Lula takes a risk and may share blame if violence escalates in Venezuela
Political scientist and director of the I3P institute, Leonardo Barreto, believes that Lula’s cautious or omissive stance, depending on how it is assessed, could decisively affect the image of how the Brazilian president acts in the context of international impasses, especially in Latin America.
“It all depends on how the Venezuelan crisis ends. If the regime becomes even more closed, Lula will be seen as having some responsibility for that. However, if he manages to lead or collaborate with a peaceful transition, it is likely that he will still be able to recover his role as a regional mediator,” he noted.
For political scientist Murillo Aragão, from the consultancy Arko Advice, Lula is “between a rock and a hard place”, uncomfortable with the situation created by both Maduro and Biden.
“Obviously Lula doesn’t like this situation, nor is he as close to Maduro as he was to Chávez. By not expressly recognizing the victory, he gives room for a retreat,” he said. In his assessment, Amorim’s role is to try as much as possible to establish a way out for Maduro.
Acting in parallel with the moves by Amorim, who met with Maduro this week as Lula’s envoy, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has sought to keep negotiation channels open with the Chavista regime, in order to collaborate with the multilateral effort and avoid worsening tensions inside and outside Venezuela.
Some merits of the Brazilian diplomatic approach were highlighted, including by the Venezuelan opposition, despite the gestures that Lula and the PT have already made in favor of Maduro. The collaboration with the diplomatic representations of Argentina and Peru, expelled from the neighboring country, for example, earned thanks from Argentine President Javier Milei and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who is concerned about the safety of refugees in embassies.
María Corina also praised Brazil’s position of demanding that the CNE release the electoral records, and said that the Venezuelan opposition is willing to participate in “serious and urgent negotiations” to agree on a peaceful political transition that respects the will of Venezuelan voters. She and González, the opposition candidate, are in hiding to avoid being arrested on the orders of Nicolás Maduro.
Lula and Biden’s conversation on Wednesday (31) was also seen as a sign of deference from the United States regarding Brazil’s role in the Venezuelan crisis, although the two countries now have divergent understandings. Dictator Nicolás Maduro also requested a conversation with Lula, which has not yet been scheduled.
The apparent impartiality, however, runs the risk of being confronted with the prospect, pointed out by Maduro himself, of increased repression, with arrests and violence against opponents and protesters against the election in the streets.
Lula’s negotiations with Mexico and Colombia over Venezuela are criticized
The joint statement from Brazil, Mexico and Colombia regarding the Venezuelan election is being seen by many as late. Four days after the election, the three countries requested the “expeditious” publication of the electoral records. They also demanded that the electoral impasse in the country be resolved through “institutional channels” and that popular sovereignty be respected with an “impartial count.”
The analysis of this speech may point both to an expectation that the opposition will be heard again and also places in the hands of the dictatorship itself an unlikely movement of transparency and correction.
Another point questioned in the statement was the section in which it asks political and social actors “to exercise maximum caution and restraint in their demonstrations and public events, in order to avoid an escalation of violent episodes”. The message can be interpreted as a request for the population dissatisfied with the result declared by the CNE to stop protesting.
The opposition to Lula in Congress demands a change of tone and points to the American position as more correct and contrasting with the Brazilian one, which sounds like collusion with the Venezuelan dictatorship.
For the Planalto Palace, Brazil, despite having placed itself in a position that is very dependent on Maduro’s subsequent reactions, which still indicate resistance and increased repression of opponents, has managed to keep channels open for multilateral dialogue.
Speeches by Lula and old-guard PT members push government towards Maduro’s side
Lula is suffering from public disapproval for not breaking with the Venezuelan president and also for his contradictory statements about the situation in the neighboring country. In his first statement on the case, he stated that there was “nothing abnormal” about the impasse and that it should be resolved by the Venezuelan justice system, ignoring all the episodes of lack of transparency, violence and subordination of the three branches of government in the neighboring country to Maduro.
To complicate matters, the official position of the PT and some of its main historical leaders, such as José Dirceu, who immediately recognized Maduro’s disputed victory, divided the government’s base and reinforced the pressure on Lula.
The president has repeatedly contradicted his speech in defense of democracy, especially after criticizing the protests of January 8, which he called coup-plotting. In addition, the historical relationship between PT and Chavismo, with Maduro in power, was made clear in the episode and caused damage to Lula’s party and to himself.
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