The prisoner exchange between the US and Russia raises new questions. What does the deal mean for the US election and the war in Ukraine? Will further negotiations follow?
Moscow/Washington/Cologne – There are similar images at the airports in Cologne, Washington and Moscow, but the signs are different: More than 20 prisoners, including five Germans, are free again after the largest prisoner exchange since the end of the Cold War. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also greets Russian opposition members, US President Joe Biden hugs journalist Evan Gershkovich, Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin hugs the “Tiergarten murderer” Vadim Krassikov, whose activity as an agent for the domestic secret service FSB Moscow has now been confirmed.
There is joy on all sides. Especially for Biden and his deputy Kamala Harris, the release of prominent prisoners a good three months before the presidential election is a great success. But could it also be the beginning of further negotiations between the West and Russia – perhaps for a solution to the war in Ukraine?
Partial victory for Biden and Harris, anger for Trump
Biden and his administration have been able to negotiate the release of several Americans from Russia since the beginning of his term in 2021, despite high tensions over the war in Ukraine. But in the middle of the US election campaign, which has been completely restarted with Biden’s withdrawal from the race, the timing of the historic exchange plays a different role for the Democrats.
The deal will not only be part of Biden’s political legacy – Vice President Harris, who wants to run in his place against Republican Donald Trump, can also use it to present herself as a strategic stateswoman who played an active role in the negotiations. For example, it was she who held a personal meeting with Scholz on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in February after much back and forth between Washington and Berlin.
Trump’s reaction also showed that this was a partial victory for the Democrats: The Republican commented on the deal with noticeable anger, bad-mouthed it on his mouthpiece Truth Social and implied in a TV interview without evidence that money had been paid for the prisoner exchange.
Trump is said to be somewhat close to Vladimir Putin. However, the Kremlin chief is unlikely to have had much interest in jeopardizing the progress made in months of secret talks in the event that the Republican could return to power. Trump is extremely unpredictable and volatile. And he has so far said that he would offer absolutely nothing in return for the release of imprisoned Americans.
No concessions in the Ukraine war
The White House immediately dampened hopes that the deal could also bring about a turnaround for Ukraine. Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan made it clear to journalists on Thursday that from the US perspective the prisoner exchange had no direct impact on the situation in the country attacked by Russia. He emphasized the practical nature of the deal, while diplomatic efforts with regard to the Ukraine war were far more complex.
Sullivan explained that there were no direct talks with Putin during the negotiations over the prisoners. Although there was contact at lower levels, Biden and the Kremlin chief have not spoken to each other for more than two years. The last phone call took place on February 12, 2022 – just two weeks before Russian troops invaded Ukraine. According to the Kremlin in Moscow, the secret services of both countries led the negotiations on the prisoner exchange. Sullivan spoke more generally of “sensitive channels”.
Expert: Many factors influence the course of the war
Russian political expert Tatjana Stanowaja sees many people hoping that the exchange between the West and Moscow will also bring negotiations in the Ukraine war closer. “But there is little reason for this,” she said. There are many other factors that influence the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war. “The outcome of the American elections, the domestic political changes in Ukraine, the state of affairs on the front lines and the military resources of both sides have much more to do with who will talk about peace in Ukraine, how and when,” she said in an analysis for the US think tank Carnegie.
“The current exchange looks more like the end of a certain phase of confrontation, while the contours of the next phase are not yet clearly visible,” she said. In her view, the death of Kremlin opponent Alexei Navalny in February in the penal camp in the Arctic region is likely to have increased the pressure to go through with the long-planned exchange.
“For Berlin, the possibility of freeing political prisoners became an important motive that helped to overcome legal and political hurdles – for the extradition of Krassikov,” she said, referring to the “Tiergarten murderer” who had murdered a Georgian in Berlin and been sentenced to life imprisonment.
Political scientist: Putin not willing to negotiate in Ukraine war
Russian foreign policy expert Fyodor Lukyanov also warns against reading too much into the deal and expecting a thaw between Moscow and the West. “That is not the case. The exchange is a sign of an established and structured confrontation, such as existed during the Cold War,” wrote the editor-in-chief of the magazine “Russia in Global Politics” on Telegram. It is good to have a channel for negotiations. But that says nothing about the future.
The German political scientist David Sirakov said that despite the serious tensions, there had been continuous talks between Moscow and Washington. “The question is whether agreements and ultimately solutions can be reached. Here it seems to have worked, probably precisely because President Vladimir Putin has shown a genuine willingness to talk.” This is, at least for the time being, fundamentally different from Putin’s attitude in his war of aggression against Ukraine. dpa
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