ElectionsUS elections.. Shuffling the cards
Two weeks ago, Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the presidential race as the Democratic Party’s candidate for the November 5, 2024 presidential election, a decision that all Democratic Party leaders and US allies were waiting for. The disaster was imminent and expected, as Joe Biden had no choice but to lose, and even lose the election by a large margin to Donald Trump. The last debate was a disaster.
Biden wanted to show he was healthy by hosting the NATO summit, but he made a terrible mistake, confusing Vladimir Putin with Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump with his running mate Kamala Harris. Worse, he contracted Covid-19 at a time when his opponent Donald Trump was euphoric, after a failed assassination attempt, at a successful Republican convention. This was a real victory for Donald Trump and his running mate J.D. Vance, who fits the bill to woo America and win its support as a white man who came from nothing and made a fortune.
Joe Biden put his family’s political interests above his personal pride. He avoided giving victory to Trump, who dreamed of only one thing: defeating the man he believes stole his victory in 2020. But Joe Biden did not give him that pleasure and avoided a humiliating defeat. What happens now?
The cards have been shuffled again. Donald Trump is no longer certain to win this election, but neither are the Democrats. Some have been talking about or hoping for Michelle Obama to run for president, but that won’t happen. Barack Obama himself has referred to three “certainties in life”: death, taxes, and the fact that Michelle won’t run.
Michelle Obama would have easily won the election, but she doesn’t want to run. Kamala Harris, meanwhile, has the support of Joe Biden and all the “Democratic” leaders. She’s not very popular, and in her four years as vice president, she hasn’t convinced many Americans. But she’s been aggressive since her first campaign rally.
As California attorney general, she has had a reputation for policies that some have considered harsh, if not overly harsh. Joe Biden has entrusted her with the sensitive issue of immigration, which is a weak point for her, because Donald Trump will not hesitate to attack her on this issue and accuse her of fueling a flood of immigrants into the United States and of being responsible for allowing very dangerous criminals into the country, as he put it. Donald Trump is clearly convinced that he would defeat Kamala Harris in any debate between them, but it is not certain that he would feel the same comfort in debating a woman. Kamala Harris will certainly focus her campaign on women’s rights and trying to win over women’s votes in the face of Donald Trump, who wants to reduce or even eliminate the right to abortion. In contrast, Donald Trump will focus his campaign on immigration and security. As is often the case, international issues will not be at the center of the debate.
In this regard, it can be said that Zelensky will be happy that Donald Trump’s victory is no longer certain. What is certain is that Trump’s victory, which is a possibility that cannot be ruled out, especially since he is still the favorite candidate, is no longer as certain as it was for Joe Biden.
What is also certain is that the election campaign will be extremely violent, and that below-the-belt attacks, inflammatory and even insulting statements will likely overshadow calm and informed debate. In any case, the entire world will be following these elections with interest and passion, firstly, because the contest promises to be exciting, but above all, because these elections are an event related to American domestic politics. The United States is still the leading power in the world, and relations with the rest of the world are analyzed very differently by Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. That is why these elections are of interest to the entire world.
*Director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations in Paris
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