Venezuelans will go to the polls this Sunday to vote in what is being described as the most important presidential election since 2013, the year in which Hugo Chavez died and Nicolas Maduro won the vote by a narrow and questionable margin over the opposition Henrique Capriles. Twenty-five years after Chavismo governed the country, This is considered the greatest opportunity to turn the rudder and redirect the nation towards a fully democratic model under the leadership of Edmundo González Urrutia, political pawn of opposition leader María Corina Machado.
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The elections have been fraught with uncertainty, from Machado’s disqualification from holding public office, the arrest of more than 100 opponents and the government’s disinformation campaign that has increased fears of a forceful victory for Maduro, who has even ventured to say that if he does not win there will be “a bloodbath.”
That being the case, Gonzalez Urrutia, The 74-year-old former diplomat has the task – probably the biggest of his life – of defeating Chavismo, which, with its state machinery, controls the entire country. However, According to polls by private firms, the opposition would win by more than 20 points on Madurowho insists that only under his figure will the nation be able to “continue moving forward.”
The Venezuelan opposition, despite its strategy for many years of boycotting electoral participation, now has a fundamental change of strategy.
Without a doubt, the biggest challenge facing the opposition this Sunday is to mobilize the electorate to cast their vote after a process of depoliticization and despair that Venezuelans have gone through following the rise and fall of Juan Guaidówho was recognized by 60 countries in 2019 as interim president in ignorance of the Maduro’s re-election, who declared himself the winner of the 2018 elections.
In the 2020 parliamentary elections, abstention was 76.53 percent, while in the 2021 regional elections it was 60 percent, data that show the electoral apathy that exists in the country.
In 2021, the Andrés Bello Catholic University presented a study that showed that 25.8 percent of citizens identified themselves as Chavistas, while 35.9 percent identified themselves as opponents. However, for 2024, the latest survey by the firm ORC Consultores records that only 11 percent of Venezuelans identify themselves as Chavistas, while 55 percent align themselves with the opposition, so this change in trend could affect the voting intention of Venezuelans.
Based on projections from the Delphos pollster, The current potential to go to vote is 53.7 percent –an approximate 9.1 million sure voters– who, if added to the four million who were not yet convinced to go to the polling stations, would reach a total of 13.1 million voters out of the 21,620,705 eligible, of which only 69,189 are abroad. It is worth mentioning that from those 21 million we must subtract at least four million who will not be able to vote outside Venezuelan soil, in particular due to the obstacles in the registration process carried out by the ruling party.
Why have Venezuelans become disenchanted with Nicolás Maduro?
Venezuela comes into this election with a slight economic recovery that began at the end of 2022 and was felt in 2023 as a result of the easing of oil sanctions by the United States.a country that maintains these measures on officials of the Maduro Government and on industries such as Petróleos de Venezuela, which contributes almost all of the national income.
That year, the country emerged from hyperinflation – which in 2022 reached 305 percent – and halted an 80 percent drop in gross domestic product (GDP).
But with the economy in such a sharp decline, it was difficult for most Venezuelans to feel an economic recovery. In fact, according to the Living Conditions Survey, by 2023, five out of ten Venezuelans were living in poverty (51.9 percent).
Migration has also been a depressing factor for families. According to data from the Interagency Coordination Platform for Refugees and Migrants of Venezuela, 7.7 million people are outside the country. Households without children, parents and other relatives; grandparents alone and empty houses have generated more despair in the population.
However, as 2024 approached, the year constitutionally set for the presidential election, the opposition changed its strategy. It went from abstaining to calling for primaries in which María Corina Machado, the staunchest of the opposition, won with 92.5% of the votes.
“The Venezuelan opposition, despite its strategy for many years of boycotting electoral participation, now has a fundamental change of strategy. It decides to participate in these 2024 elections in a context where the Maduro government has a tight control over the institutions and has also adopted a very important turn from the economic point of view,” Mariano de Alba, an expert in geopolitics and diplomacy, told EL TIEMPO.
This economic turnaround that De Alba talks about is reflected in figures such as inflation in June, which closed at 2.4 percent for a cumulative total of 18.1. This has to do with an increase in oil production and the easing of sanctions.
However, this has not been enough for the majority of Venezuelans to want to support Maduro, even his son, in an interview with the newspaper The country of Spain, admitted that they would “hand over power and become the opposition” if they lose.
Edmundo left on March 26 and told me: ‘I’ll be back’, I’m going to go to meetings. When he came back he told me: ‘Look, you can’t do anything now, I’m in trouble, I’m the cover (as they call a provisional candidate in Venezuela)’. I didn’t understand it. He then explained to me that he was the option in case a candidate couldn’t be found.
However, after winning the opposition primaries, Machado was disqualified by the government and, determined to fight back, she handed over her candidacy to Professor Corina Yoris. She was also prevented from registering. Thus, González Urrutia was chosen to face Maduro.
“Edmundo left on March 26 and told me: ‘I’ll be back,’ I’m going to go to meetings. When he came back he told me: ‘Look, you can’t do anything now, I’m in a mess, I’m the cover (as they call a provisional candidate in Venezuela)’. I didn’t understand it. He then explained to me that he was the option in case a candidate couldn’t be found,” Mercedes López, González Urrutia’s wife, told this newspaper about how the career diplomat ended up carrying the opposition’s flag in today’s elections.
A campaign in Venezuela in persecution
For some analysts, this has been the worst campaign of persecution carried out by Chavismo. It is estimated that at least 102 people were arrested for supporting Machado and González.More than 20 establishments such as restaurants, inns and hotels were closed for receiving opponents, and six of Machado’s collaborators are taking refuge in the Argentine embassy in Caracas.
Added to this were the obstacles and blockades that the police placed in Machado’s way every time she visited the country, which ended with citizens trying to help the opposition figure reach her destination.
Caracas, for example, was full of posters, billboards, graffiti and propaganda for Maduro, while there was not a single one for Edmundo. Even so, in an organic way, people took over the networks to learn about the steps of the opposition, who promised to “win, collect and celebrate” the victory to “reconcile all Venezuelans,” as they said on July 25 at the closing event of the campaign that brought together thousands.
“The government has had a strategy of manipulating the memory of Chavez, so much so that the elections are on his birthday. They asked people that the best gift for Chavez was to vote for Maduro, but asking to vote for the memory of Chavez is asking to vote for the past. People are going to vote for their present and for the hope of a change for a better future, that is what has really motivated Venezuelans,” Igor Cuotto, analyst and advisor in negotiations, told this newspaper.
This is in line with what people were shouting at the closing of the opposition campaign that took place last Thursday in Caracas: “We don’t want this nightmare anymore,” “enough of the humiliation,” “for the return of our people,” were some of the slogans that resounded in the Las Mercedes area, where Machado and González were welcomed by the masses.
What’s next for Venezuela and the region?
What’s next for Venezuela and the region? That’s the big question everyone is asking.
The country has become a challenge for the continent. On the one hand, many of the millions of migrants who fled – and who could continue to leave the country if Maduro is forced to stay – require state attention to deal with the humanitarian crisis they are experiencing.
On the other hand, transnational criminal gangs, in particular the ‘Tren de Aragua’, emerged from the depths of Venezuelan prisons and regional collaboration is urgently needed to combat their tentacles. In addition, Chavismo was the gateway to the region for Russia and Iran, in addition to strengthening alliances with the dictatorships of Cuba and Nicaragua.
Analysts estimate that in the event of fraud, the social pressure will be enormous. On the international side, and against the backdrop of the November elections in the United States, it is quite possible that voices will be raised calling for drastic measures such as the reimposition of all sanctions and the withdrawal of the license of the American giant Chevron.
The US position must remain strong in terms of putting pressure on the Chavista regime regardless of what happens on Sunday, because the transition lasts five months and anything can happen.
For Joseph Humire, director of the Center for a Free and Secure Society, “Venezuelans are ready to win, but they need help,” and he makes this statement because the control of the State and its connections with transnational crime exists.
“The US position must remain strong in terms of putting pressure on the Chavista regime regardless of what happens on Sunday, because the transition lasts five months and anything can happen” afterwards, says Humire.
On paper, winning may seem easy for the opposition, but today they will not only have to achieve majorities but also face more complex obstacles such as abuses and violations of electoral law.
Of course, if they win, there will be a titanic task: governing, since those months of transition that Humire talks about will be crucial. In addition, Chavismo controls all the institutions, judges, Armed Forces and media. They have the majority of the governorships and mayoralties and are masters of the legislative power from which any new law that affects a possible transition can be derived.
“If Maduro loses, there will be complex negotiations,” says Cuotto, noting that these negotiations include parliament, judges and other officials, as could be the case in Guatemala, where Congress refused to swear in Bernardo Arévalo.
As analyst Carlos Zambrano says: “The role of the international community, especially Colombia and Brazil, will be fundamental.” “We are talking about a process of reinserting Venezuela in the democratic arena, of expelling irregular groups from the territory and of resuming mechanisms that allow the country to access credit.”
Ana Rodriguez Brazon
CORRESPONDENT OF EL TIEMPO
CARACAS
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