Thousands of firearms, parts and components, accessories and ammunition are produced, sold, exported or imported every day around the world. But figures on the total number of firearms are often misleading. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) It is difficult to estimate the inventory of firearms, as publicly available information on producers – including the type, quantity and value of their products – and owners is often scattered, incomplete or non-existent. In this context, the latest research carried out by the organization Stop the US Arms on Mexico (Stop US Arms to Mexico, in English), directed by John Lindsay-Poland, becomes extremely relevant.
The report The Iron River from Armas to Mexico: Its sources and contents adds to a series of studies that conclude that The flow of weapons from the United States to Mexico originates in thousands of American gun shops. Data released by the Oakland, California-based organization indicate that gun violence in Mexico has risen sharply over the past two decades, fueled by rifles arriving from the United States since the federal ban on assault weapons sales in the United States expired in 2004, followed by the war on drugs launched in 2007 by the Mexican government of Felipe Calderón.
The high rates of armed violence in Mexico have serious humanitarian consequences, both visible and invisible. One of Lindsay-Poland’s main conclusions is that this iron river The flow of weapons from the United States to Mexico empowers organized crime and accelerates forced displacement. This flow of weapons originates from hundreds of manufacturers and passes through thousands of local gun shops in the United States each year.
When American researcher Lindsay-Poland began sending requests for information on the number of weapons traced from Mexico that were linked to a zip code in the United States, it was March 2021. The situation of armed violence in Mexico was critical. According to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), in that year 35,625 homicides were committed in the country. Of these, 24,484 people lost their lives as a result of attacks with firearms of different calibres, 68.7% of all murders committed.
And in a country like Mexico, where there are only two gun stores located in Mexico City and Monterrey, both strictly regulated by the National Defense Secretariat (SEDENA), the overwhelming level of gun violence can seem inexplicable.
The illicit arms trade is not new, but the increase in trafficking is. The border shared by Mexico and the United States is approximately 3,152 kilometers long, where particular dynamics occur due to the difference in weapons regulations between the two countries. Understanding this asymmetry is fundamental. “While Mexico has a closed system for the acquisition of weapons, in the United States all types of automatic rifles can be obtained at any Walmart,” summarizes researcher Carlos Pérez Ricart.
The author also notes that while violence in Mexico is on the rise, the Mexican government has recovered a growing number of weapons, the data of which it has submitted to the US Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) for tracing. The number of weapons submitted for tracing has increased by 45% from 2015 to 2022. The ATF continues to identify the United States as the source of more than two-thirds of these weapons – manufactured in or imported into the country, purchased and trafficked across the US-Mexico border. Lindsay-Poland stresses that the origin of about half of the remaining weapons has not been determined, so the proportion of weapons coming from the United States is likely to be even higher.
More than 130,000 weapons recovered in seven years
The ATF identified 133,558 recovered weapons in Mexico that were submitted for tracing over eight years from 2015 to 2022. Regarding this data, the Stop US Arms to Mexico report points out that the weapons recovered in Mexico are mainly manufactured by four of the companies sued by Mexico in a US court for their negligence in marketing that leads to arms trafficking to Mexico: Smith & Wesson, Colt, Glock and Beretta. These weapons giants make up 30% of the total weapons recovered in Mexico for which the manufacturers were identified.
Border and small towns: preferred areas for arms trafficking
The document shows that the retail gun market in the southern border states of the United States is very profitable for the trafficking of weapons to Mexico. According to the ATF tracking data, which the organization Stop Guns from the United States to Mexico turned into a very detailed mapthe five cities with the highest number of guns traced to their jurisdiction were: Houston (2,452), Tucson (2,156), Phoenix (1,745), El Paso (1,658) and San Antonio (1,340).
Along the same lines, the report notes that small towns are also preferred sources: licensed gun shops in just six zip codes in border towns in Texas were the sources of nearly three thousand weapons trafficked to Mexico, recovered and traced back to their purchase.
Few weapons recovered in Mexico
John Lindsay-Poland has also concluded that only a small portion of the weapons trafficked to Mexico are recovered there. According to the study’s data, The Way of the Gun: Estimating Firearms Traffic Across the US-Mexico Border from the University of San Diego, it is estimated that from 2010 to 2012, when firearms production in the United States was about half of what it was in 2022, 253,000 guns were purchased annually in the United States with the intent to traffic them to Mexico.
However, only 20,000 weapons have been recovered on Mexican territory and submitted for tracing. Furthermore, according to officials from the US Department of Homeland Security, the number of weapons destined for Mexico that were confiscated in fiscal year 2023 was only 1,392 weapons, demonstrating a huge gap between academic research and official figures. The situation is actually an open secret, but concrete evidence is scarce.
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