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The West is losing the arms production race with Russia’s industry. Despite sanctions, Putin has been producing more since the beginning of the Ukraine war.
Moscow – Despite Western sanctions, Moscow is able to stay afloat in the Ukraine war. The Russian military industry is running at full speed and is producing three times as much ammunition as all Western states combined – including the USA – can supply to Ukraine. How is that possible?
A quarter of a million artillery shells per month. That is the balance sheet for the Russian war industry, as the NATO upon request from CNN The USA, on the other hand, is currently only aiming for around 100,000 artillery shells per month. The West is currently losing the production war with Russia. But whoever has more material at their disposal is also in a much better position to win the war. That is why the West imposed comprehensive sanctions on Russia right at the start of the war in order to slow down the Russian war economy.
Analysis shows: Russia produces more weapons than before the Ukraine war – despite sanctions
But the opposite has happened: despite sanctions, Russia is producing more ammunition, missiles and drones than before the war began, as an analysis of the British Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). In 2021, for example, before the Russian invasion, the military industry in Russia produced 56 Kh-101 cruise missiles. In 2023, Vladimir Putin’s Russia managed to produce a whopping 460 of the cruise missiles, the report says. The same goes for the Russians’ widely used Iskander missile. From about 50 before the war, Russia now produces 180 per month.
The production of the Iranian Shahed-136 kamikaze drone has also expanded from 40 per month to 250 currently. Thus, the sanctions have so far proven ineffective, according to the institute’s analysis. “Despite the diligent efforts of many officials, supported by the political will, to disrupt Russia’s military-industrial production, there is little to show for it.”
The report cites one of the three main reasons for the failure of the sanctions as being that the majority of the restrictions were imposed “reactively” rather than “proactively”. Many European countries do not know how best to use sanctions as a means of economic warfare, but see them more as a regulatory tool. A fatal mistake, according to the analysis. That may work against terrorist organizations, but not against a state like Russia. Because: “Unlike terrorists, Russia can scale.”
“Proactive” sanctions to slow Russia’s war economy
If a company is subject to sanctions in Russia, another company takes over the importwhich is why sanctions must be proactively imposed to sustainably restrict the import of critical weapons technology to Russia.
But the RUSI analysis also gives cause for hope. A large part of the Russian war economy would still be vulnerable to sanctions from the West. “It has become clear that the Russian arms industry is significantly affected by international attempts to disrupt it.”
Only this month, the US and Europe announced new sanctions against Russia, which were primarily intended to close existing loopholes, such as Reuters reported. In addition, sanctions were imposed on 116 Russian individuals and companies and it was proposed to further restrict the export of technologies that can be used for both civilian products and military applications. Time will tell whether the new sanctions will be more effective in slowing down the Russian war economy. (sure)
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