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The 2024 French election could bring a political turning point. According to the latest polls and forecasts, the RN could take over the government.
Paris – The 2024 French election is causing some unrest: for the first time, right-wing populists could take over the government at the national level in France. The latest polls and forecasts before the new elections show that Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) is currently in the lead.
French election: Latest polls and forecasts threaten Macron with affront – Le Pen’s party ahead
The latest polls and forecasts suggest before the French election that the Alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), which consists of left-wing populists, socialists, communists and greens The New Popular Front is a new version of the former Nupes alliance, which collapsed after the outbreak of the Gaza war. And what about the group of Emmanuel Macron? The Ensemble electoral alliance he supports does not seem to have managed to get beyond third place in the results of the French election.
French election 2024: The latest polls show a clear trend
A look at the latest polls before the French election suggests that Macron’s group has little chance of challenging Marine Le Pen’s RN for victory. The RN is expected to receive just under 35 percent of the vote in the election forecasts. The New Popular Front is at around 28 percent, while the Macron camp Ensemble is at around 20 percent.
RN | 35 |
NFP | 28 |
ensemble | 20 |
LR | 7 |
REC | 2 |
Other | 8th |
(Source: Politicoweighted average of polls, as of June 28)
What the latest forecasts say about the distribution of seats after the 2024 French election
However, it should be noted that the members of the National Assembly are elected in two rounds according to a majority voting system. In contrast to Germany, where a personalized proportional representation system applies, this leads to a worse performance of smaller parties in the allocation of seats after the 2024 French election. However, this can only be calculated after the second round of voting. Nevertheless, a forecast is possible here too according to the latest polls before the French election:
RN and right-wing allies | 225 to 265 |
NFP | 170 to 200 |
ensemble | 70 to 100 |
LR and various rights | 30 to 60 |
DVG (various left-wing) | 10 to 18 |
Other | 1 to 5 |
(Source: Ifopas of 28 June)
Latest polls and forecasts leave everything open before the 2024 French election
RN party leader Jordan Bardella is claiming the post of prime minister, but will only take over if he wins an absolute majority in the French election. If that happens, Macron could be politically forced to appoint him. This would mean that France would experience a fourth cohabitation in which the president and prime minister come from different camps.
However, according to the latest polls and forecasts for the 2024 French election, it is still completely unclear whether this will happen. In the 2022 parliamentary election, the Macron camp won 245 seats, while the RN only got 89. (cs/AFP)
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