06/28/2024 – 7:44
The first Genial/Quaest survey on electoral succession in the capital of São Paulo, released this Thursday, 26th, shows TV presenter José Luiz Datena (PSDB) technically tied with mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB) and federal deputy Guilherme Boulos (PSOL). This is the first time that Datena, who has 17% of voting intentions, appears sharing the lead with the other two pre-candidates, if surveys from other institutes are considered.
Within the survey’s margin of error, which is plus or minus three percentage points, Datena is tied with Nunes, who has 22%, and with Boulos, who has 21%, in the stimulated survey – when the researcher presents the names for the participant. The journalist launched his pre-candidacy for Mayor of São Paulo through the PSDB on the 13th.
Quaest conducted in-person interviews with 1,002 voters from São Paulo between June 22 and 25. The reliability index is 95%. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol SP-08653/2024.
Behind Nunes, Boulos and Datena are coach Pablo Marçal (PRTB), with 10%, and federal deputy Tabata Amaral (PSB), who registered 6%. Economist Marina Helena (Novo), with 4%, and federal deputy Kim Kataguiri (União Brasil), with 3%, also scored. Pre-candidates João Pimenta (PCO) and Ricardo Senese (UP) have 1% each.
Even though Datena presented 17% of voting intentions in the stimulated survey, the TV presenter did not score in the spontaneous survey – when voters say the name of their preference without having contact with the list of pre-candidates.
In this format, the leader is Boulos, with 10%. The deputy is technically tied with Nunes, who has 6%. Pablo Marçal was remembered by 3%, while Tabata and Kataguiri registered 1% each. The undecided voters were 72%.
Independence
Half of the São Paulo residents (50%) interviewed want the next mayor to be independent of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL). For 29%, in turn, it is necessary for the elected candidate to be an ally of the PT member; another 19% said they welcomed closeness with the former chief executive. In this year’s dispute, Nunes has the support of Bolsonaro and Boulos, of Lula.
Quaest also carried out stimulated voting polls with four other scenarios. In one in which Pablo Marçal is not a candidate, Nunes has 25%; Boulos, 23%; and Datena, 19%. In another without Kataguiri, the mayor registered 24%; the deputy, 23%; the presenter, 16%; and the coach, 11%.
In a third scenario that simulates the absence of Datena and Pablo Marçal from the dispute, Nunes opens up a greater advantage over Boulos, but still with a technical draw. The mayor appears with 28%, the PSOL deputy has 24% and Tabata Amaral reaches 13%.
In the fourth scenario, there are no names of Datena, Marçal and Tabata. In it, Nunes appears with 30%, while Boulos has 25%. Marina Helena reaches double digits, with 10%.
The current mayor has an advantage over Boulos in a possible second round. According to Quaest, Nunes starts with 46% of voting intentions, compared to 34% for the deputy. 5% are undecided and 15% said they would vote blank, null or not at all. In a scenario in which Nunes would face Pablo Marçal, the MDB candidate has 48% of voting intentions, compared to 22% for the coach.
It is against Datena that Nunes has a smaller advantage. In this scenario, the mayor has 43% of the preferences, while the presenter has 34% of the voting intentions. Datena has an advantage in a direct dispute against Boulos: 43% of the intentions, while the deputy is preferred by 35% of the voters of São Paulo. In a scenario in which Boulos faces Marçal, the PSOL deputy has 41% of the intentions, while the coach has 30%.
Datena is the most rejected among São Paulo voters. According to the survey, 51% of São Paulo residents said they knew him and would not vote for him, while 39% said they would. Boulos, in turn, is rejected by 41% of voters. Another 35% responded that they could vote for the PSOL deputy. The current mayor is rejected by 38% of São Paulo residents, while 39% said they could choose Nunes at the polls.
Repercussion
After the research was released yesterday morning, Datena stated that, this time, “there is no retreat”. The presenter accumulates withdrawals from previous disputes. Nunes and Boulos said they were optimistic about their survey results. Tabata declined to comment.
The information is from the newspaper The State of S. Paulo.
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