The immigration crisis has become a recurring topic in any social gathering or political debate and is the protagonist of the electoral campaign for the November elections, but one certainty prevails among so much discussion. It is no longer about the well-known need that migrants have to live in the United States, but rather the need that the country has for them. 20% of workers in the United States were not born in the national territory and it is expected that in the near future more than seven million additional migrants will be required for the labor market. This is revealed by a study carried out by Brookings that warns about the effect that the increase in retirements, which was greater than expected after the pandemic, will have on the economy.
At a time when the generation of baby boomers is approaching 80 years old, two challenges arise for the United States economy: having personnel to care for the elderly and maintaining the solvency of Social Security and the Medicare program.
“There are going to be many more people over 90 and over 100 and although they are in better health than in the past, they will need support and care. We have a challenge because the ratio between people of working age and older people is going to be lower,” said Tara Watson, director of the Brookings Center for Economic Security in a conference on the economy and immigration policy.
Added to the aging of the population is the plummeting fertility rate, which is currently around 1.7 births per woman. Thus, if in 1970 there were 5.7 people of working age – between 18 and 64 years – for every person over 65 years of age; In 2020, there were 3.7 workers, and by 2040 it is expected that there will be only 2.7 for every retiree. “Immigrants are not going to solve the problem of Social Security solvency, but they can help,” says Watson.
The more than seven million that Brookings estimates in its report are the result of taking into account the current participation of migrants in the labor market and the positions that will remain vacant due to retirement in the coming years. The activities where there will be the greatest demand for work visas will be, according to its forecasts, in production and manual work, with 2.87 million positions to be filled. The retail sales and entertainment services sector will be the second most in demand, with 2.15 million vacancies, followed by health and care services, with just over one million.
More demand for California, Texas and New York
By State, those that already have a greater participation of immigrants, such as California, Texas and New York, will have a greater demand for visas. It is also expected to be high for New Jersey and Illinois, despite the fact that lower growth in their labor market is anticipated. On the contrary, states such as Utah and Tennessee, where there is now a lower participation of immigrants, will need more labor due to the expected growth of their labor market.
To meet these needs, the report’s authors recommend expanding work visas for migrants working in agriculture, approving more asylum applications, or creating a state visa program.
The crisis caused by the massive arrival of migrants at the border with Mexico has unleashed a wave of criticism against President Joe Biden, who has failed to reach a bipartisan agreement. The refusal of the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, to approve an agreement has not allowed it. In exchange, Biden this month imposed the closure of the border when the number of 2.5 billion daily entries is exceeded for a week, an amount that has been far exceeded.
Despite the suspicion that an increase in the arrival of migrants arouses, Madeline Zavodny, a professor of Economics specialized in Immigration at the University of North Florida, assures that “when they arrive, migrants not only work, they also buy things, increase the labor demand, they are creating jobs.” Zavodny explains that, in addition, migrants tend to settle in less populated areas, often rural, where labor is needed. “They fill gaps in the labor market, at low, medium or high level, such as teachers, scientists… and they are very entrepreneurial, from a modest business to a high level, like Elon Musk,” she adds.
This economist assures that the United States market has room for more migrants who, contrary to what many think, do not threaten the employment of Americans, but rather complement them. “The United States economy can absorb a very large number of immigrants, even the flows that we have seen in the last year and a half (…) Since 1990, the number of immigrants who can arrive legally is fixed, even though the size of our economy has more than doubled. “We are not meeting the economic needs and part of what we see at the border is exacerbated by the fact that we do not have the appropriate legal pathways,” she points out.
In an election year like this, immigration has become the spearhead of the Republican Party, which has accused the Biden Administration of applying a lax policy on the admission of migrants. “Voters are concerned about illegal immigration due to the disorder and chaos on the border. We cannot sell to the public that they trust us (…), that in the long term it will benefit us, that they do not worry. That those who oppose are racists and xenophobes. Is not true. Ordinary people, ordinary voters, particularly those in the working class, are very concerned,” says Ruy Teixeira, a political scientist at the American Enterprise Institute.
The concern is greater in the States that receive more migrants. While the federal government benefits from tax revenues from the taxes they pay, local and state governments face the cost of providing services to the massive arrival of foreigners. “Part of the federal government’s resources should be redirected to places that are absorbing migrants with less education, which are the ones that have a higher fiscal cost. In the long term, the federal government continues to win, but in the short term, states and local governments face expenses for which they do not have the budget,” says Watson.
Labor rights
Meanwhile, the federal government announced this week that it will give a boost to the dissemination of migrant labor rights. The Department of Labor has added six languages to the two it already had, English and Spanish, on its website migrantworker.gov, in which it distributes the information. Created in August 2023, the website has a common question and answer format and will now be available in Arabic, Chinese, Creole, Portuguese, Tagalog and Vietnamese. New videos have also been added with guidance for women, such as those dedicated to protection during breastfeeding, to those that already existed, such as those referring to breaks, salaries or precautions to take in extreme heat.
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