06/19/2024 – 11:48
The Ibovespa has fallen practically since opening, having already dropped to the level of 118 thousand points, due to the lack of motivators this Wednesday, the 19th. The Juneteenth national holiday in the United States leaves the markets there closed, which tends to reduce liquidity at B3.
The agenda also does not favor a rise in the Bovespa Index, nor commodities. Oil rose moderately and iron ore fell 0.36% in Dalian, China.
In this way, investors are adopting caution, while still waiting for the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), although the result will only be released in the early evening, with the markets already inoperative here. In addition, fiscal concerns continue.
“Nobody wants to take a risk, given that the Brazilian market is already in a bad shape due to the tax authorities. This way, it will be difficult for anyone to want to take a risk”, assesses Felipe Moura, an analyst at Finacap.
Investors are still monitoring President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s meeting with ministers of the economic area, Social Security and the Environment to discuss the spending review and the climate emergency plan. Also on the agenda is the inauguration of Magda Chambriard as president of Petrobras, which will be attended by Lula and the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad.
Yesterday, the Ibovespa closed up 0.41%, at 119,630.44 points, despite investors’ discomfort with Lula’s criticism of the current level of the Selic rate and the president of the Central Bank (BC), Roberto Campos Neto.
Lula accused Campos Neto of having a “political side”, signaling that he will not accept a “betrayal” from his nominees, including Paulo Picchetti and Gabriel Galípolo, most likely until then to take over the Central Bank from January. “It threw more fuel into a crisis that is already huge due to the inspector”, says Moura, from Finacap.
The majority expectation is that the Selic rate will be maintained at 10.50%, after a 0.25 percentage point cut in the May Copom. At the time, the divided vote by the directors of the Central Bank (BC) caused discomfort in the markets. Therefore, a unanimous decision is expected by the market, which would signal the BC’s credibility. “The worst case scenario is a divergence in the score,” says Moura, from Finacap.
MCM Consultores expects an interruption of the current cycle of lowering the Selic rate and a decision that will be supported by all directors of the Central Bank.
As the consultancy assesses, inflation expectations have deteriorated since the last Copom, which worries BC directors. In a report, it mentions that the climate tragedy in Rio Grande do Sul also requires monitoring due to its secondary effects on prices.
“There was a significant devaluation in the prices of domestic assets, caused by factors such as fears about the future composition of the Central Bank and changes in the rules of the fiscal framework”, states the MCM, adding that the likely upward revision of the neutral interest rate, estimated today at 4.5% per year, also justifies the Copom’s caution.
At 11:33 am, the Ibovespa fell 0.37%, to 119,170.74 points, after a decline of 0.56%, with a minimum at 118,960.37 points, compared to an opening at 119,630.44 points, with zero variation, and a maximum at 119,630. 68 points. Petrobras gave between 0.22% (PN) and 0.37% (ON).
Vale ON fell 0.107%. CSN ON returned part of the previous day’s jump, losing 4.00%, ranking first among the portfolio’s declines. Assai ON and Azul PN appeared next, with drops of 2.69% and 3.31%, in order.
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