Poder360 anticipates what will be highlighted in the week from June 17th to 21st, 2024
The digital newspaper Power360 brings this Monday (June 17, 2024) a selection of issues that should mark the agenda of power and politics this week.
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The government’s difficulties in calming tempers in the economy, in Congress and in society will continue in the week ahead. There is unavoidable bad news: the interruption of the fall in the Selic, the Central Bank’s basic interest rate, on Wednesday (June 19, 2024).
It will be another negative item for the government after the return of the compensation MP, which made the use of tax credits difficult, increasing tax payments for many companies. It was to compensate for the exemption of 17 sectors of the economy and city halls in cities with up to 156.2 thousand inhabitants.
The Copom meeting (Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank) will begin on the 3rd (June 18, 2024) and end on the 4th (June 19, 2024), at the end of the day. There is practically a consensus among market analysts that the Selic rate will be maintained at 10.5% per year.
It tends to be a unanimous decision, or close to it, among the directors of the monetary authority. The reason is the great concern about excessive government spending, which puts pressure on inflation.
At the most recent Copom meeting, in May, there was a division among the directors: 4 voted for a reduction of 0.5 percentage points and 5 for a 0.25 point reduction.
The BC’s monetary policy director, Gabriel Galípolo, was one of those who voted for the bigger cut in May. But on Wednesday (May 15, 2024) he praised the reduction of 0.25 percentage points. Gallipolo, chosen by Lulawill possibly be appointed by the government to preside over the Central Bank with the departure of Campos Neto from the position at the end of this year.
Galípolo’s statement, aligned with the government, is an indication that the BC will stop cuts in the Selic in the coming week. The reduction began in August 2023, when it was at 13.75%.
And the Ministry of Finance will receive proposals from congressmen in the week ahead to compensate for the R$26 billion in lost revenue it estimates it will incur with the exemption. There is no deadline to analyze and comment on the proposals.
By decision of the STF (Supreme Federal Court), if compensation is not established, the exemption will be suspended. Lula said it will be up to Congress to decide what will be done. But obviously the lack of a solution will fall on the government’s account.
Lula begins this Monday with another coordination meeting with Congress leaders and the most relevant ministers. It will be the 3rd meeting of this type on a Monday. The meeting was established to try to improve negotiations with Congress. It hasn’t helped anything so far.
And the 1st Panel of the STF will decide on Tuesday (June 18, 2024) whether to accept the Public Ministry’s complaint and make the Brazão brothers defendants on charges of ordering the murder of councilwoman Marielle Franco and her driver, Anderson Gomes, in 2018.
There is an expectation that the vice candidate on the São Paulo mayor’s ticket will be chosen in the week that begins, Ricardo Nunes (MDB), who will run for re-election in October. Bolsonaro defends the nomination of former police officer Ricardo Mello Araújo.
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