The French left, divided in recent months by the war in Gaza and Ukraine, or the personalism of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has united this Monday to call for a “new popular front” to attend the early legislative elections in France on June 30 and July 7. The “new popular front” would bring together from the radical and Eurosceptic left the social democrats who favor the EU and NATO, in addition to the unions.
In a statement published after an afternoon of negotiations, the left has announced an agreement in principle to present single candidates with a “breakup program” and measures that would be applied in the first 100 days of Government if they obtained a parliamentary majority. The content of this program is unclear and has not yet been negotiated in detail.
The hangover in France after the victory of Marine Le Pen’s far-right in the European elections on Sunday and the unexpected announcement of early elections has not yet dissipated. The stupor is total at a decision by President Emmanuel Macron that no one expected, not even a good part of his entourage. But the movements have already begun for an express campaign of just three weeks, and on which the big question hangs: will the ultra formation win this time, finally and after repeated failed attempts?
The elections will be held in two rounds, on June 30 and July 7. The 577 deputies that make up the National Assembly will be elected, each in a district. June 16 is the deadline to present candidates. The Macronist bloc is the one with the most deputies in the current chamber, 250, although it does not reach an absolute majority. Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) has 88.
Everyone goes blind, but the publication Challenges released a poll by the Harris Interactive institute, and it does not bode well for Macron. The RN would obtain 34% in the first round, with a projection of seats in the second round of between 235 and 265. In second position would be the left with 22% and between 115 and 145 deputies, as long as they attend together. The current presidential majority would be third: 19% and between 125 and 155 seats. These are figures that must be taken with a grain of salt: with 577 districts, two rounds and without yet knowing the candidates and coalitions, any projection is risky. But, at the very least, it shows the risk of the early call, which the president justified by the need to give the French the floor after the electoral setback.
Audacity? Temerity? The more details are known behind the scenes of the president’s decision, announced in a speech to the nation on Sunday at 9:04 p.m. after the election result was known, the clearer it becomes that he decided it alone without consulting more than with a very small circle. of advisors. He summoned the Government officials at 7:15 p.m. to explain it to them. The chronicles say that they were as confused as the French would be an hour and a quarter later. According to BFM-TV, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal tried to persuade him to accept his resignation instead of dissolving the National Assembly. Unsuccessfully.
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The dilemma of the French left was whether to present itself again with a joint brand as in 2022 was the New Progressive Environmental and Social Union (NUPES). In a statement, France Insoumise (LFI), until now hegemonic on the left, defended lowering the retirement age from 64 to 60 years and “the rejection of the escalation of war in Ukraine.” These are some of the points that could pose problems for the PS, which now feels strong after the candidate on its list for the European elections, Raphaël Glucksmann, came in third place, ahead of LFI. “Not with Mélenchon,” the mayor of Paris, socialist Anne Hidalgo, told EL PAÍS this Monday.
The Macronists seek another type of union: what for years has been known in France as the republican front. That is, the union of the space that goes from the PS to the moderate right of Los Republicanos to stop the extreme right. I would exclude those of Mélenchon and those of Le Pen. The idea is that in the constituencies where the RN candidate can win, the republicans to defeat him. “I trust the people,” said Macron during a visit, planned in advance, to Oradour-sur-Glane, a town martyred by Nazi Germany at the end of World War II.
The president trusts in his ability to convince. He also believes that the legislative elections are different from the European ones, since many voters use these elections to the European Parliament to cast a sanction vote against the Government. He hopes that in the legislative elections the substance will be voted on and the French will be aware of the consequences of their vote. The division of the left can favor Macronist candidates to qualify for the second round against a RN candidate and, to avoid the latter’s victory, obtain the support of left-wing voters.
Three scenarios are emerging after the elections. The first, a new Macronist majority, or in coalition with the moderate right, that would allow him to continue governing. Another scenario is that of a National Assembly without any dominant party and, therefore, ungovernable, unless government coalitions are built, something far from French political culture. The third scenario is that of a chamber in which the RN was the first force and the future prime minister came out of this group. Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s right-hand man and successful candidate in the European elections, 28 years old and with a brilliant career, is the natural candidate for the position.
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