Dina Mahmoud (London)
Amid the conflicting results of opinion polls conducted in Britain, regarding the results of the first television debate between the leaders of the Conservative and Labor parties, Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, ahead of the upcoming legislative elections, political analytical circles in London stressed that the relatively good performance of… Sunak in the debate may not help his party much, avoiding a defeat that seems imminent in the vote.
These circles indicated that what was revealed by a poll conducted by the British “YouGov” institution for market research and data analysis immediately after the end of the debate last Tuesday evening, in which “Sonak” was ahead of his “Labor” rival by 51% to 49%, may not constitute a significant difference over the debate. The level of chances of the “conservatives” in the upcoming Fourth of July elections.
Public opinion studies in Britain still indicate that the opposition Labor Party, with its center-left leanings, can achieve a major electoral victory that will return it to power, 14 years after it was removed from it by the “Conservatives.” Polls following the YouGov poll also reported that Tuesday’s debate, which lasted for about an hour and was broadcast by the British television channel ITV, concluded that Starmer prevailed over Sunak, by 44% to 39%.
According to these polls, part of which was published on the website of the Evening Standard newspaper, the Labor leader had a majority over his rival when it came to immigration (45% to 37%) and in the field of security and defense (43% to 41%). The health and services sector (63% to 25%), and finally with regard to the economy and costs of living (52% to 36%).
Analysts point out that the offensive style followed by the “conservative” Prime Minister during the debate, and his focus on criticizing Starmer’s intention to increase taxes if he wins the elections, may have seemed convincing to those following this verbal debate, but they warned of the danger of Sunak relying on gamification. In order to frighten the British, by electing a prime minister whose intentions may be ambiguous and untested.
The same argument was previously used by Labor leader Gordon Brown in 2010 in his election campaign against his then-Conservative rival, David Cameron, in an effort to keep the party in power. But this did not prevent the “conservatives” from winning the legislative elections, which were held in the same year.
In addition, analysts pointed out that Sunak had previously excelled in the debates that brought him together with the conservative politician Liz Terrace during their competition for the leadership of the Conservatives nearly two years ago, but this did not ultimately lead to his success in overcoming her, as Terrace won the leadership of the party and took over. Prime Minister, before she was forced to resign later, and he succeeded her in both positions.
Analysts believe that the Labor Party’s victory in the next House of Commons may be guaranteed after the expected July elections, unless the political scene in Britain witnesses major transformations during the remaining few weeks before the polling date.
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