03/06/2024 – 7:00
Treasury Direct bonds linked to the IPCA were investors’ favorites during the month of April, according to the National Treasury. IPCA+ bonds represented 49.2% of investments in Tesouro Direto in the month. Next, there were securities linked to Selic (37.4%) and, finally, prefixed securities (13.3%).
Experts consulted by This is Money state that this greater demand for securities linked to inflation is explained by the greater concern with the situation of public accounts and the external scenario, which increased the premium paid for the IPCA+ bond.
“Rates surpassed the 6% mark, a very important trigger for investors”, says head of fixed income at Faz Capital, Filipe Arend. The analyst also highlights that expectations regarding inflation have also increased in recent weeks, “which is reflected in the media and increases the demand for investments that protect the investor’s assets.”
“IPCA securities guarantee a real interest rate above inflation”, recalls the partner and director of risk and compliance at Fundamenta Investimentos, Moisés Jardim. “When there are doubts regarding government fiscal control, these real interest rates rise.”
In April, there were bonds made available that pay a yield of 6% or 8%, in addition to inflation. “CDI over time, Ibovespa, different indexers, different asset portfolios, we see that they hardly beat IPCA+6%”, comments the CGA resource manager of the Fractal Group, Túlio Menezes.
Felipe Martins Passero, CFA and partner at InvestSmartXP, says that two factors were responsible for the rise in yields on IPCA+ bonds: concerns about the Brazilian government’s fiscal situation and the announcement by the Federal Reserve that US interest rates will remain at a high level for longer than initially anticipated.
In April, the largest portion of sales was concentrated in bonds with maturities between 1 and 5 years, which reached 42.2% of the total. Investments in securities with a maturity of over 10 years represented 32.8%, while securities with a maturity of 5 to 10 years corresponded to 25.1% of the total.
Profitability in the month
The data released by Tesouro Direto regarding the profitability of securities in the month also draws attention. Only the Selic 2027 and Selic 2029 titles had a positive change.
Arend recalls that Treasury Direct’s pre-fixed and inflation-linked securities are subject to mark-to-market, that is, to be traded at varying values based on the current market.
“When there is an increase in the future interest curve, as was seen, the papers already issued adjust, losing their current value”, says Moisés Jardim. The impacts of the “yellow curve” derive precisely from the fiscal risk and the external scenario, mentioned above. “We have seen interest rates in the futures market rise at all levels”, agrees Túlio Menezes.
It is important to remember, however, that the loss is only confirmed if the investor decides to dispose of the security before maturity. If you choose to maintain the investment, the amount received at expiration will be exactly the profitability contracted at the time of investment.
Investors under 15 years old
Another highlight in the April data from Tesouro Direto was the 3.7% percentage of investors under the age of 15. The share, although still low, represents growth compared to the 1% invested by this age group in March.
For analysts, the increase in the presence of these young people in the Treasury demonstrates the impact of the new thematic bonds, Educa+, focused on paying for education, and Renda+, focused on retirement.
“These new titles that have emerged have further supported financial education, and are emerging as an alternative to traditional means of social security”, highlights Menezes.
“In most cases, the investments of this portion of investors are managed by parents, with the aim of creating long-term savings for their children”, says Arend.
Despite the accelerated growth of a new age group, Passero comments that the majority of Tesouro Direto investors remain in the same group: men (73.4%), aged between 26 and 45 years old (57.5%) and residents of the southeast (52.3%).
How Treasury Direct works
Treasury Direct is an investment that allows citizens to lend money to the government, receiving remuneration in return. It can be linked to inflation or the Selic Rate, or pre-determined at the time of purchasing the security.
The papers have an expiration date, but the investor can redeem the money before it. To do this, however, he is subject to fluctuations in the price of the paper on the market – that is, he can redeem his money profitably, but he can also lose. If the investment is continued until the end of the term, the remuneration follows that established by the type of security at the time of purchase.
Tesouro Direto is considered a conservative investment, recommended by experts for investors who have a low risk tolerance.
In April, the total number of active investors in Tesouro Direto, that is, those who currently have a balance in investments in the Program, reached the mark of 2.58 million, an increase of 33,774 investors in the month.
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