Elections in Mexico: Claudia Sheinbaum or Xóchitl Gálvez, the scientific minds vying for the presidency, who is who?

Claudia Sheinbaum, from the ruling coalition Let’s Keep Making History, and renew the 628 seats in both houses of Congress and more than 20,000 positions in the states.

“It will be up to me to be the first female president of Mexico. I am clear that it will be up to us, together, to save the legacy of a man who has changed, for the better, the history of our country: Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo)”Sheinbaum stressed in reference to his promise of a continuous government.

For her part, Gálvez, who declares herself a feminist and in favor of abortion, offers herself as a way out against the current government and places emphasis on security by proposing to demilitarize the country, the construction of a maximum security prison, return the civil character to the National Guard (militarized by Amlo) and remove the Army from the construction of public works to focus on national security.

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Although in the polls the difference between the ruling party and the opposition has been significantly reduced in recent weeks, Sheinbaum, 61, has 53 percent of support compared to 36 for Gálvez. Under this panorama, who was the first woman elected as the head of Government of Mexico City is the favorite to govern the largest Spanish-speaking country and the twelfth largest economy in the world until 2030.

Cataloged as the most violent elections in the country’s modern history – Official figures recognize the murder of 25 candidates, but independent organizations record more, such as Integralia, which documented 34 – the main challenge for the new president will be security and stopping the wave. of violence that has been increasing since 2012.

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“The very passive strategy that Amlo executed in security allowed the consolidation of criminal groups in a large part of the country. So this is no longer even a security problem but also a political problem and the integration of illicit capital into the formal economy,” Edmundo Sandoval, associate director of analysis and global risk at Control Risks México, tells this newspaper.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo), who became the first leftist president of Mexico, says goodbye to power with 66 percent approval while weighing down accusations of authoritarianism and not having significantly reduced crime rates. Added to this are Amlo’s ambitious and questioned reforms that were left in the pipeline and represent a point of tension in Mexico. In particular, those related to the federal administration to eliminate autonomous organizations, as well as the reform of the Judiciary and the electoral branch, which have already been identified as a risk for democracy.

(Also read: How will the presidential election in Mexico impact Colombia and the region?).

“There is no doubt that what is at stake in this presidential election is democracy and freedoms. Although it does not mean that if Sheinbaum wins we will become a dictatorship, what we have seen in this last six-year term is an erosion of different aspects of our democracy, something that can be exacerbated with the constitutional reforms that intend to continue underway. after inheriting from this government and that they would be profiling Mexico as an autocracy,” Cristian Castaño, director of the Civil Association Center for Strategic Studies of Mexico, tells EL TIEMPO.

At the same time, Horacio Jiménez, editor of the Mexican newspaper The universalhighlights that the scenario looks complex because disenchantment in the democratic model is a constant in the country.

“In a recent report we published, 7 out of 10 Mexicans thought that the most effective way to exercise power was for a single person to have control of everything. “Democracy is at risk, especially when organized crime is having excessive influence in the elections,” he states, highlighting that the relationship between democracy and organized crime is the center of discord. “In Mexico, more than a figure that emerges from politics or the media, what is generating the most anti-democracy for us is organized crime,” he adds.
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(Also read: José Alfredo Cabrera, candidate in Mexico, is assassinated at the end of the campaign and during a live broadcast).

However, from Sandoval’s perspective, because the new president’s ability to maneuver will largely depend on the results of Congress, particularly the federal one, things do not look so simple: “As a result of the models quantitative data that we have, we estimate that in reality there are not going to be significant changes in the distribution of the Government; Therefore, if Sheinbaum wins, advancing the constitutional reforms alone will be very complicated as we do not have the majorities,” she points out.

Experts also warn that to achieve the reduction of 8.9 million people in poverty through the implementation of generous social spending, Amlo sacrificed the balance of public finances, also affected by the weak results of the state giant Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), which for decades has been essential to sustain the national budget. In that sense, to overcome the fiscal deficit that López Obrador is going to leave to his successor, it will be key to promote foreign investment.

Regarding this aspect, Sandoval clarifies that it must be taken into account that the structural conditions of the country are quite different from those with which López Obrador came to power.

“Although in Mexico there is currently relative macroeconomic stability, there are important budgetary challenges, while there is no political capacity to execute a fiscal reform, at least during the first three years of the next six-year term. “This clearly marks a route that, whether by preference or necessity, presents a totally different scenario than the one that López Obrador had,” says Sandoval, who highlights that the shift towards dialogue that Sheinbaum had since the beginning of the campaign has shown that can build bridges.

(You can read: ‘We are going to make history’: This was the closing of the presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum’s campaign in Mexico).

“Although Sheinbaum has been much closer to the figure of the president due to force majeure, she has been forced to have greater approaches, especially to the private sector to present herself as a much looser figure in that narrative. And, certainly, what is going to be needed in the next six-year term is greater pragmatism,” says the analyst.

Another of the legacies that Amlo leaves to his successor are the disputes, and even breaking of relations, that he has had with different countries in the region. In this six-year term, Amlo triggered the break in relations with countries like Peru and Ecuador. Furthermore, in the case of Argentina, the president and his partner Javier Milei were involved in a verbal dispute. But foreign policy was absent from the campaign issues.
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(Also: Mexico: Claudia Sheinbaum reaches the end of the presidential campaign with an advantage over Xóchitl Gálvez, according to a survey).

A series of attacks and the presence of alleged criminals forced authorities to suspend the general elections this Sunday in two municipalities in the Mexican state of Chiapas (south), bordering Guatemala.

The regional Elections Institute (IEPC) reported this Saturday that there are no conditions for the installation of voting stations in the communities that make up Pantelhó and Chicomuselo, inhabited by about 63,000 people.

It was “determined not to hold elections” given “the situation of violence and ungovernability,” the IEPC said in a statement.

The electoral authority cited “acts of violence” such as what occurred on Friday morning, when unknown persons burned stationery for the elections at the IEPC facilities in Chicomuselo.