Although at times there was some uncertainty, the outcome of the trial against Donald Trump in a New York court that found him guilty It took few by surprise. Even his own campaign had been plowing the ground for months in case of an adverse result in the judicial process that was brought against him for falsifying the accounting records of his company to hide the payments that were made to the porn film actress Stormy Daniels with whom the former Republican president allegedly had an extramarital relationship.
(Also read: Donald Trump becomes the first former president of the United States convicted in a criminal trial: how does the verdict affect him?)
However, the unanimous decision reached by a jury made up of 12 people – chosen at random – caused a schism of enormous proportions whose electoral and political impact is just beginning to cook and that, in the process, has put the very foundations of American democracy in check.
In almost record time – nine hours deliberating – the group of New Yorkers chosen by both parties to define Trump’s fate not only determined that, indeed, there was an alteration of the accounting records to hide the payments, but that the former president did it to amortize potential damage to his aspirations presidential.
(You may be interested in: Can Donald Trump go to prison? Can he still be president of the United States? Questions and answers about the future of the former president)
What will be the specific punishment? It is something that has now been left in the hands of Juan Merchán, the Colombian judge who led the process and who He set the reading of the sentence for next July 11.
Although the crimes that are accused of the former president contemplate a penalty ranging between one year and four months in prison, the minimum, up to four years as the maximum sentence, Most likely, Merchán will opt for a “parole” scheme taking into account Trump’s age (77 years old) and the absence of criminal records.
This in practice translates into a fine, the threat of a higher penalty if the crime is committed again. and the surveillance of an agent with whom you will have to coordinate your departures from the state.
This is because the Constitution of the United States, The only thing required to reach the Oval Office is that the candidate be over 35 years old, was born in US territory and has been living in the country for at least 14 years.
As expected, just one day after hearing the verdict, the former president appealed the jury’s decision to a higher court based on numerous arguments.
(Also: What does Donald Trump have against the Colombian judge who has his conviction in his hands? ‘Look where he comes from’)
Trump took advantage of Friday’s intervention to remind Americans that he continues to lead the presidential polls because, according to him, the people understand that the trial in which he was found guilty was “a rigged trial.”
In that case, depending on what that court decides, The sentence could be postponed until the court makes a substantive decision, which could take months and is not expected to occur before the scheduled election date.
That is to say, the elections – and the entire final stretch of this campaign – will take place under a black background that for now seems irreversible.
The million dollar question
As Trump pointed out, the polls slightly favor him, especially in the so-called group of “swing” states that, in a race as polarized as the one that is coming up, are the ones that will tip the balance in favor of one of the opponents. But, Those same polls also pointed to a change in the perception of the electorate if Trump were found guilty.
An ABC-Ipsos sample from a month ago indicated that at least 20 percent of Republicans would reconsider in that scenario. Another four percent would definitely vote against him. In the case of independents, almost a third of them would turn their backs on him.
(You can read: ‘The judge was a tyrant’: Donald Trump announces that he will appeal the verdict against him based on numerous arguments)
In other words, Most polls show that the conviction would have a slight effect on the elections. And given that th
ese are likely to be resolved by very narrow margins, the outcome in New York could be fatal for Trump’s aspirations to return to the White House.
However, as Harvard University professor Steven Levitsky says, in the hyper-politicized world in which the United States currently gravitates, even such a conviction cannot predict the outcome.
“At any other time in history this development would be a fatal blow to any candidate. But we are living in an era in which Trump has absolute control of the entire Republican Party that has decided to accompany him in his frontal attack against a judicial system that he accuses of being biased against him,” says Levitsky.
(In other news: Donald Trump would beat Joe Biden among young voters in the United States, according to a poll)
At any other time in history this development would be a fatal blow to any candidate.
Although he defeated Biden by more than 8 million votes and beat him in the Electoral College count, which is the one who chooses the president, almost 80 percent of the Republican Party was convinced – without any proof – that The elections were stolen from Trump.
The former president, in fact, has made it clear that he plans to use the same delegitimization strategy that he used four years ago, but now directed against the judicial system.
In other words, argues political consultant Alex Constant: “Trump has convinced all Republicans that this has been a rigged process. “It’s not even about whether he is innocent or not, but about eroding the credibility of the system and using it to his advantage for electoral purposes.”
Distrust in the system?
The opposite thesis, and one that the Biden administration is betting on, is that voters – or at least a majority of them – will see this as a new effort by Trump to destroy institutions and evade justice.
“What this proves is that no one is outside the law. But today’s verdict does not change the fact that the American people face a simple reality. There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box,” said Michael Tyler, communications director for the Biden campaign, commenting on the decision.
Trump has tried to sabotage the elections and the justice system whenever he has concluded that they do not favor him
The New York Times points out that the jurors have issued their verdict, as will the voters in November, and warns that for the Republic to survive, “all of us (including Trump) must respect both, regardless of the result,” anticipating the difficult horizon that lies ahead for the country.
But also others of great importance such as the conflict in the Middle East, women’s reproductive rights and any other surprise that usually arises at the last minute.
However, none of these issues are able to hide what happened this week when Donald Trump became the first president in US history to be convicted of a criminal offense. What remains to be determined is whether, despite this, Americans want him back in the White House.
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI – EL TIEMPO Correspondent – Washington
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