01/06/2024 – 8:01
The negative impact of the floods in Rio Grande do Sul on economic activity should appear mainly in the second quarter data. Efforts towards recovery, however, could generate a “partial rebound” in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the following quarter, assess economists consulted by Broadcast Projections.
Given this premise, Santander Brasil recently reduced its projection for Brazilian GDP for the second quarter, from growth from 0.3% to 0.1%, and increased its estimate for the third quarter, from 0.5% to 0.6%. %. Economist Gabriel Couto highlights that, if the negative impact is greater, the recovery will also tend to increase.
Couto considers that the duration of the effect tends to vary between sectors. “There are those where it tends to be faster, such as some segments within services”, he explains. “The most lasting impact we see is on the industry. The loss of productive capacity and the destruction of fixed capital could compromise the sector for a little longer in the State.”
The bank recently raised its projection for GDP in 2024, from 1.8% to 2.0%. The increase was motivated by the consequences of the more heated scenario in the job market, but was partially offset by the estimated downward effect on the consequences of the situation in Rio Grande do Sul.
XP also recently reduced its estimate for second-quarter GDP, from an increase of 0.5% to 0.1%. “We see industry and state services as the most impacted sectors, but it is clear that agriculture tends to suffer as well”, points out economist Rodolfo Margato.
He highlights that the downward effect on economic activity should be concentrated in the second quarter, with partial compensation expected for the second half of the year, mainly in the third quarter.
XP maintains, for now, a growth projection of 2.2% for GDP in 2024, but has added a downward bias to the estimate. Margato calculates that the net negative impact of the situation in Rio Grande do Sul could be between 0.2 percentage points and 0.3 points of GDP.
Banco MUFG Brasil, in turn, has not yet revised its projection for GDP for the second quarter, but chief economist Carlos Pedroso considers that the tendency is to reduce the growth estimate of 0.6%. It corroborates the expectation that part of this negative impact should be offset in the following quarter, with investments and efforts to rebuild the State.
For now, the bank also maintains its 2024 GDP growth projection of 2.1%. “We will really evaluate the depth of the impact of Rio Grande do Sul and the impact of recovery ahead, to see if we will carry out a review for low or not”, says Pedroso.
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