Trends and probabilities: this is how it is calculated who could reach the final of the BetPlay League

The accounts: Pereira and Junior must win by one goal more than the other, or triumph and the other does not. Bucaramanga aims for a four-way tie, For which he must defeat the Matecañas and hope for a blue victory in El Campín.

Xpecta Sports, a social media account specialized in predicting results based on data analysis, gives the first classification option to Deportivo Pereira: 49 percent. Bucaramanga has 28.9 percent and Junior, 21.9.

Another firm, Matics Football, also gives the first option to Pereira, in a data analysis based on the antecedents of the results between the teams in contention: 47.9 percent. The second option is given to Junior (36.8 percent) and the last, to Bucaramanga (15.3 percent).

The statistical trend also favors Pereira: in the last ten visits to Bucaramanga he won four times and drew two, plus four defeats, which marks a tie. Junior, for his part, goes to one of the places where he performs the least: he has only beaten Millonarios once in Bogotá in the last ten League games. He tied two and lost the other seven. They have not won since August 6, 2017 (1-2, with both from Matías de los Santos for the blues and from Jefferson Gómez and Yimmi Chará for the Barranquilleros). With that combination of results, Deportivo Pereira would be a finalist.

Deportes Tolima and Santa Fe will define the classification in a direct duel, on Sunday, at 7:30 pm. Pablo Peirano’s team arrives in Ibagué as the leader, with 13 points in five presentations, while David González’s team is second, with 10.

(Also: Alianza said goodbye with victory and left Millonarios with a negative milestone in Conmebol tournaments)

Santa Fe needs two results, a win and a draw, to return to a final after three and a half years, and to seek its first star since the second half of 2016.

Xpecta Sports data analysis gives the first option to classify Deportes Tolima: 54.4 percent, against 46.6 for Santa Fe. Matics Football, on the other hand, gives León as a favorite (60.48 percent against 39,52).

The statistical trend is also favorable to the local team, although not widely. In the last ten visits of Santa Fe to Tolima in the League, they achieved two victories, four draws and four defeats.

However, you have to go back five years to find León’s last victory at the Murillo Toro: it was on November 17, 2018 (0-1, with a goal from Carlos Mario Arboleda). That duel was in the quarterfinals of the League and ended in a tiebreaker from the penalty spot, in which Tolima qualified.

The figures seem to paint a final between Pereira and Tolima. But mood and recent performance also play a role in these instances. The outcome will be known on Sunday.
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