The Government of Brazil suffered, this Tuesday night, a series of painful defeats in Congress against the Bolsonaro opposition, which on this occasion had the invaluable collaboration of parliamentarians from parties in the ruling coalition. The battery of votes, which covered a wide range of issues, concluded with several decisions contrary to the plans of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his team: the dissemination of false news will not be a crime, the door is opened for the president to be prosecuted if public money is used to educate about sexual orientation and prison permits will not be restored on occasions such as Christmas.
The defeat occurs at a time when the Government’s popularity is suffering although the economy is doing better than predicted at the beginning of Lula’s mandate, almost a year and a half ago. “It has been a long time since a Government (any government) has suffered so many defeats in Congress,” analyst Thomas Traumann tweeted after the session, pointing to one of the keys to what happened. “The Government’s position had the support of less than 140 deputies compared to more than 300 of the opposition.” And that means that deputies from parties that hold ministries in the coalition Executive voted alongside the Bolsonaro opposition. It’s not the first time. It is a strategy that they have used on other occasions to raise the price of parliamentary support for government initiatives.
The leader of the Workers’ Party (PT) caucus, José Guimarães, admitted that perhaps the president should undertake some changes in his Cabinet and warned about the risk of accommodation. “If everything were fine, the president would have 80% acceptance,” he said, according to Folha de S.Paulo before the session. And he explained that many of the social programs that Lula has resumed, after her predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, weakened or canceled them, are already perceived “as state policies and not as new conquests.”
Although Lula has tried to soften reluctance with greater injections of money into projects that each parliamentarian can designate (something provided for in the law) and more public investments, especially in social programs. A few months ago, the president put aside his promise to close the year with a zero deficit in order to expand programs aimed at those most in need and economic incentives.
The Government is now completely focused on alleviating the effects of the climate catastrophe caused by the rain storm and the floods that occurred a month ago in Río Grande do Sul. The Government announced days ago a package of more than 60,000 million reais (almost 12,000 million euros) between aid and credits. 44 people are still missing, the dead now total 169 and almost 50,000 people still remain in temporary shelters. Almost all municipalities and industries were affected. And a third of the students have not been able to return to classes. Lula visited the affected region three times in three weeks and Bolsonaro, who is disqualified from running in elections until 2030, has embarked on a tour to collect donations for those affected by the tragedy.
The last elections were the closest in the history of Brazil. Lula defeated Bolsonaro’s far-right by less than two points and thanks to a broad coalition that he managed to forge with the mission of rescuing democracy. This third presidential term was presented and is being much more difficult than the previous two, at the beginning of the century. And now the parties are once again in campaign mode ahead of the municipal elections scheduled for next October.
“The results [de las últimas votaciones parlamentarias] They do not mean that Lula has become a minority in Congress overnight. However, they reveal that the Bolsonarismo-centrão coalition has a mobilization capacity capable of embarrassing the government on issues it considers sensitive,” analyst Bruno Boghossian writes this Wednesday in Folha. The centrão (the great center, in Portuguese) is a constellation of parties that traditionally offer their parliamentary support to the highest bidder.
Last night, Lula’s Government did not gain enough allies in Congress to lift the veto imposed by then-President Bolsonaro so that the dissemination of false news during the electoral campaign would be punished with between one and five years in prison.
Their honors also decided to maintain, against the wishes of the current president and his Government, the veto of the traditional permits that inmates enjoy in a semi-open regime to leave prison on designated dates such as Christmas and Mother’s Day. This represents, in addition to a setback for the Executive, a risk for public safety, according to some specialists, who fear that it will generate discontent in prisons and even riots. The Government emphasized, when defending its position, that temporary outings to reunite with the family are an essential part of the social reintegration process. But at the gates of local elections and with public safety as the first concern of Brazilians, the hinge parliamentarians opted for a strong hand.
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