05/29/2024 – 11:37
The fall in international stock markets and the 1.11% decline in Dalian, China, to US$ 122.97 per ton, in Dalian, China, weigh on Ibovespa this Wednesday, before the Corpus Christi holiday on Thursday -Friday, 30. Furthermore, caution on the eve of a holiday in Brazil, renewed tax concerns and some local indicators increase caution here.
After opening in the range of 123,000 points, the Bovespa Index earlier lost the support region at 123,300 points, which raises the possibility of further losses.
“Ibovespa has been anemic for a few days, waiting for better data, more political confluence”, assesses Felipe Moura, analyst at Finacap.
According to Moura, there is a “menu” of factors that explain the deterioration of the Bovespa Index, which yesterday closed down 0.58%, at 123,779.54 points, the worst closing mark of 2024.
“Brazil’s fiscal continues to be worrying, there are doubts about interest rates in the United States and the Copom’s decision itself still reverberates”, adds the Finacap analyst. In May, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) reduced the rate of Selic’s decline from 0.50 percentage points to 0.25 percentage points, with the voting score divided.
Even oil abandoned its rise, contaminating the markets, amid fears that the Federal Reserve (Fed, the North American central bank) taking longer to cut interest rates would play against it. This perception has been reinforced by Fed officials, who speak again today.
Furthermore, the focus is on the American Beige Book, which will be released in the afternoon and could help calibrate bets for US interest rates.
“There is still pressure on interest rates. The market is more skeptical about a fall in American interest rates in the short term. This generates a bit of risk aversion, generating even more expectations for the release of the PCE consumer spending index, on Friday in the USA”, assesses Silvio Campos Neto, partner at Tendências Consultoria.
In the US, interest rates on long Treasuries are rising and putting pressure on the curve in Brazil, which mainly affects shares linked to the economic cycle and large banks on B3.
“Global environment is reinforced here by caution before the holiday,” says BV chief economist Roberto Padovani in a morning commentary. Stock markets in Asia closed lower and those in Europe fell, as did New York, while 10-year interest rates rose to 4.601%. “So, a morning of risk aversion,” says Padovani.
Internally, the range of indicators released this morning also does not alleviate the issue, as it reinforces the debate about the end of the Selic’s fall, starting with the General Price Index – Market (IGP-M). The indicator accelerated to 0.89% in May, compared to 0.31% in April, remaining above the median of 0.82% of projections, which ranged from 0.34% to 1.03%.
“The IGP-M registered a slightly greater advance than expected, reflecting increases in ore and fuels, after a slightly benign IPCA-15, but insufficient to bring greater relief in the interest rate market”, assesses Guide Investimentos in a report.
For the Tendências economist, the unemployment rate reported today by IBGE generates even more prudence for the Central Bank
Just today, the April Caged was released, with the creation of 240,033 formal jobs in April, against the ceiling of 240 thousand jobs in the projections. Just like the Contínua Pnad in the quarter up to April reported earlier, the indicator tends to put more pressure on the Selic rate to stop falling.
The unemployment rate for the quarter up to April was 7.5%, just below the 7.6% floor of expectations, while the surplus of R$6.688 billion in the public sector last month, below the floor of estimates, which ranged from R$12.40 billion to R$37.20 billion, with a median of R$16.550 billion.
At 11:19 am, the Ibovespa fell 0.72%, to 122,882.31 points, compared to a decline of 1.07%, to a minimum of 122,457.54 points, returning to the lows of mid-November 2024.
Among large banks, the maximum decline reached 2.20%. Vale lost 0.56% and Petrobrás fell between 0.37% (PN) and -0.15% (ON). Yduqs led the group with the biggest falls, giving up almost 3.00%.
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