The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, the conservative Rishi Sunak, last Wednesday (22) called elections for the British Parliament for July 4th.
The announcement was surprising because Sunak could schedule the election until the beginning of 2025, and the Conservatives appear to be experiencing their most delicate political moment in years, with a great risk of leaving number 10 Downing Street (the British Prime Minister’s residence) for the first time since 2010.
All polls show Labor, led by Keir Starmer, with more than 40% of voting intentions; Depending on the institute, they boast advantages of more than 20 percentage points.
Furthermore, a few weeks ago, local elections were held in which the conservatives had historically bad results, with the loss of half of their mayors in the localities where the vote took place.
The Tories had been suffering from the poor performance of the British economy, which accumulated two consecutive quarters of decline and entered a technical recession in the second half of 2023.
However, there now appears to be a slight recovery. The United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.6% in the first quarter of this year. Furthermore, 12-month inflation was 2.3% in April, the lowest since May 2021.
Analysts point out that, despite the poor data in the polls, Sunak preferred to bet now, when he has good economic numbers to present.
“I entered the government promising economic stability and, through a collective effort, we reached two milestones: our economy is growing faster than anyone expected (…) and inflation is back to normal. This is proof that our priorities are working”, said the prime minister, on the day he announced the date of the elections.
In an interview with CNN, a Sunak adviser, who preferred not to be named, agreed that this is the best time for the Conservatives to take a risk at the polls.
“The prime minister took office facing a series of important challenges: inflation, lack of growth, migration. And he dealt with it as his main mission. He has made genuine and significant progress in these areas. The IMF [Fundo Monetário Internacional] our growth forecasts improved, we saw inflation return to normal levels, today we see migration falling as a result of our reforms”, he stated.
Recently, the Sunak government implemented new measures to restrict the arrival of legal immigrants, such as preventing foreigners who arrive in the country to work as healthcare providers from coming with family members and increasing the salary range for foreign workers to obtain permission to live in the UK.
According to official figures, the number of visa applications fell by 25% in the first four months of this year, compared to the same period in 2023.
To combat illegal migration, the British government resumed the plan for deportation flights to Rwanda, which had been blocked by the courts.
“So we have a solid basis to say that things are going in the right direction, and the view was that now was the best time for us to say to the country: ‘Here’s what we’ve done, our planning is working, now who do you think? who has the planning and the ability to take bold action to move this country forward towards a safer future?’”, said the advisor interviewed by CNN.
It remains to be seen whether, in such a short campaign period (just six weeks), this will be enough to turn the tide and defeat Labor again. (With EFE Agency)
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