Ebrahim Raisi “displeased everyone” in his mandate, he was “the most insignificant of all the presidents of the Islamic Republic”. His successor will be an exponent of the ‘second generation’ of the Islamic revolution, a direct expression of the Guardians of the Revolution, while the debate on Raisi’s candidacy as the third Supreme Leader of the country was forced, as he lacked the necessary charisma and had “too many skeletons in his ‘Wardrobe”. Nicola Pedde, director of the Institute for Global Studies (Igs), stated this in an interview with Adnkronos, outlining the political scenario that opens up in Iran in the aftermath of the death in a helicopter crash of President Raisi and the Foreign Minister , Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.
A crash which, Pedde believes, is probably due to a tragic fatality, even if “none of the hypotheses can be ruled out at this stage”. The analyst points out that the crashed helicopter was an American-made model missing spare parts and that the Islamic Republic has a “mile-long” history of civil and military air crashes. Furthermore, yesterday the weather conditions in the area of the accident were “prohibitive” and therefore “there are all the factors to support the theory of the accident”. On the other hand, he points out, the hypothesis that it may have been a “sabotage” before the inspection of the vehicle cannot be ruled out and the main reason for concern for the Pasdaran is that Raisi’s helicopter came from Azerbaijan which is a country “where Israel has a deep-rooted presence”, but “they haven’t pushed too hard on the hypothesis of sabotage”.
The expert judges the Raisi presidency to be “insignificant” since “it was obviously not liked by the reformist and pragmatic component, but not even by the conservatives themselves. He was seen as not very incisive and inert in the management of political power. His was a disappointing mandate because he was unable to take clear positions, displeasing everyone.” Pedde then recalls how the late president was elected with “controversial” methods as the Council of Guardians “paved the way” for him by not allowing his most credible challengers to vote. Furthermore, the elections in which he won were those with the lowest voter turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic.
As regards the succession to Raisi, according to Pedde his passing is wrongly being attributed “decisive importance” for the future of Iran, but “there will not be major changes”. Article 131 of the Constitution provides for the creation of a management council composed of the acting president Mokhber, the speaker of Parliament Qalibaf, and the head of the judiciary, Mohseni-Ejei which has 50 days to organize the elections. During this period the nominations will have to emerge, the Guardian Council will have to select them and the electoral campaign will have to take place.
“This is a very good period of time which will favor the so-called systemic candidates, therefore the conservative and probably more radical wing – he states – This will make the candidatures of reformists and pragmatists very difficult: in the past the name of Zarif (the former Foreign Minister under President Rohani, ed.), but we need to see the technical times”.
As for possible candidates, Mokhber’s name as future president leaves Pedde “quite skeptical as he is very weak to spend politically”. But in any case, the analyst continues, these are elections “highly emphasized in emotional terms, but which do not change the picture of Iranian politics”.
What Pedde “strongly” fears in light of the “strong albeit dormant discontent” in Iran and Raisi’s “strong unpopularity” is that a candidate from the ultra-conservative area “could produce an even lower result in terms of voter turnout. It is This is the real problem for the system of the Islamic Republic which draws legitimacy from elections.” The expert highlights that in any case “these elections will bring a second generation exponent to power” or “direct expression of the Pasdaran”.
Finally, Pedde excludes that Raisi’s death could influence the race for Khamenei’s succession since many observers spoke of a two-horse race with the Supreme Leader’s son, Mojtaba. It is “a debate that seems very Western and not very Iranian to me”, cuts the expert short, according to whom Raisi “had a profile that could never have placed him among the candidates for Khamenei’s succession” as he had no “charisma nor a credibility that can be spent before the Guardian Council. The president, due to the thousands of opponents sent to the gallows when he was deputy prosecutor of Tehran, had too many skeletons in the closet”.
Raisi’s candidacy was “more constructed by us outside of Iran. Even Mojtaba does not have the juridical-religious credentials of his father, moreover it would establish a dynastic line of power which is frowned upon in the clerical environment. I wouldn’t be surprised – he concludes – that the third Guide, as happened in the transfer of power between Khomeini and Khamenei, can arrive through a process of constitutional reform given the political predominance of the second generation which would empty the office of its prerogatives”.
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