A ghost walks the halls of the Finance system; is debated in the Secretary of Finance and state-owned companies; turns on red lights between businessmen heyprivate investors. It extends to key characters in the Claudia Sheinbaum’s campaign team, probable successor of the President López Obrador.
Written in a nutshell: The next administration will need an additional 750 billion pesos to the income forecast so far. And no one has decided where they should come from to avoid a paralyzed presidency. Is he ghost not from one economic crisisbut governance.
Just last Tuesday, Gerardo Esquivel, former governor of the Bank of Mexico and head of Dr. Sheinbaum’s economic advisory team, I declare that “the margin to improve public income was exhausted,” to which he proposed a Tax Reform that affects consumption (VAT) or income (ISR). That alone idea she was considered damned during the López Obrador’s six-year term.
“You can survive without it (the tax reform), but it would mean making services such as health, education and security precarious,” said Esquivel. Even more?, you ask.
Other central actors of the call 4T They differ from the expert, who on that same occasion assured that the possibility of having greater savings or collection that kept the López Obrador government afloat was extinguished.
A sector promoted by the so-called “iron lady” (prosecutor), Raquel Buenrostro, maintains that only five thousand of the 11 thousand so-called major perpetrators were dragged before the SAT since 2019, so there would still be room for maneuver, without tax adjustments that would cause shocks at all levels.
On March 27, the Treasury, headed by Rogelio Ramírez de la O, advanced criteria for public spending in 2025, with a deep cut in it, which this year reached a historical maximum of 9.14 trillion pesos and should drop to 8.66 trillion . Even so, it must be complemented with debt, currently at 18.16 trillion pesos, equivalent to 50% of the wealth (GDP) that the entire country generates in a year. Only the payment of interest on that debt will mean, in 2025, 1.3 trillion pesos, or 14 of every 100 pesos that the government will spend, as reported by the IMCO.
A third sector within the ruling party is called to mitigate the size of the fiscal impact due to the subsidy to companies such as Pemex and the CFE, among others, as well as in flagship projects, such as the Maya Train, Dos Bocas and the new airport. For now, the ghost continues howling.
Notes: The audios that I anticipated here are now emerging showing Carlos Alpízar, operator of the former president of the federal Judiciary, Arturo Zaldívar, pressuring federal judges to protect financial or political interests. The first leak exposes a magistrate subjected to extortion by Alpízar to cancel charges against twenty former Federal Police officials linked to the former Secretary of the Interior, Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong. This evidence is a long-distance shot aimed at the aforementioned characters, but that could reach the heart of pacts between Peña Nieto and President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Perhaps this is why Zaldívar’s team was colonized by subordinate figures, for example, to the former legal advisor of the Peñismo, Humberto Castillejos. In the chess fought between the Court and the 4T, the front headed by the Minister President, Norma Lucía Piña, could not only soon collect an important piece, but also place a check on the king.
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