Less than 24 hours before the Eurovision 2024 final, the betting houses have a firm favorite: the Croatian song Baby Lasagna, Rim Tim Tagi Dim. They give her a 38% chance of being the winner of the night in Malmö (Sweden).
The second with the most options (25%) is Hurricane by Eden Goldan, who represents Israel. The song was initially presented with the title October Rain (“October Rain”), in reference to the Hamas attack on October 7. Despite the controversy, the country has been able to take part in the Festival, but, at the request of the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), it changed the lyrics of the song to the current Hurricane. The musical base remains the same.
Israel’s chances have increased after the semifinals, according to the betting houses, which on Thursday night gave it just a 5% chance.
In third place, with an 11% chance, is the Swiss song The Code, from Nemo, which talks about life as a non-binary person. The representative song of Spain, Bitch from Nebulossa, remains in eleventh place on the list of bettors’ favorites, with only a 1% probability of winning.
Are the predictions correct?
Looking at the predictions is useful because in recent years they have been quite right. The betting houses successfully predicted the first and second place in the last four editions, in addition to the victory of the Portuguese Salvador Sobral in 2017.
The surprises occurred in the third occupant of the podium. In the 2022 edition they predicted that the Israeli Noa Kirel would not go further than sixth position, but she achieved third place. A similar case occurred with Spain in 2022 or with Switzerland in 2021: they were in fifth place in the prediction tables, but finished third.
Croatia, on the verge of its first victory
If the predictions come true, Croatia could win the Eurovision Song Contest for the first time. Since its first participation in 1993, after the independence of Yugoslavia, Croatia has appeared in 19 finals.
Her best result was in 1996, when Maja Balgdan reached fourth place with the song Sveta Ljubav (Sacred Love). Three years later, in Jerusalem, Doris Dragović repeated the same position with Marija Magdalena. Since 2000, no Croatian participant has managed to get into the top ten of the Festival.
Baby Lasagna marks a new milestone, although it would not be the first band of Croatian origin to win the crystal microphone, a prize awarded to the winners of the festival. The Croatian group Riva had already won in 1989 representing Yugoslavia (with the song rock me).
How much are they listened to on Spotify?
One way to measure how much you like the songs that participate in the Festival is to see their popularity. Spotify scores, with values between 0 and 100, how much its users listen to each song (the latest Bizarrap session, with Natanel Cano, has an 87, for example).
The Croatian Rim Tim Tagi Dimfavorite of the bets, is the eighth with the most listens, while the palm of Spotify users takes it Europapa from Netherlands. The representative of the Netherlands has been disqualified this Saturday from the festival for inappropriate behavior. The Noia by Angelina Mango (Italy) is the second and Unforgettable (Sweden), the third. The Spanish theme, Bitchoccupies ninth position.
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