Who will win this Champions League? (Last Tango, Jorge Barraza)

It was less than Leipzig in the round of 16 (and there were two gross referee errors, one in the first leg and another in the second leg, in favor of Madrid). He suffered a siege never seen before Manchester City in the quarterfinals, but Madrid passed. And it has been less than Bayern Munich in the semis, but got a valuable draw on the road (2-2). It is an almost heroic task to send him to the canvas and count him ten. Because he fights until the end, he deserves that credit. And that of the hierarchy of his men, who, at the slightest offensive hint, convert. It requires three, four goal situations, or more from all the other teams in the world. Madrid, with an average, reaches the net.

Fairly Thomas Tuchel, the excellent coach of Bayern (champion of the 2021 Champions League with Chelsea), highlighted the merengue team’s punch and its ease of scoring a goal with little control, without even creating danger, even when they are suffocating against their goal, as It happened with City. One touch, two and boom… in. It could be Rodrygo or Vinicius or Bellingham or anyone.

“It was a very good first fifteen minutes, in which we had chances, a fluid game… but then it was not so fluid. They had one and they scored a goal for us,” analyzed the German coach. “Then we were better in the second half, with the equalizer and the penalty that made it 2-1. We had a chance to make it 3-1 and we didn’t make it. But there was a chance in our area and they made it 2-2. This is what they do with many rivals and this time it was our turn.”

Tuchel openly praised the team Ancelotti: “It is the highest individual quality paired with an incredible ability to swap positions and maintain the rhythm on counterattacks… And they know how to overcome bad moments.”

(Also read: This is how the second date of the home runs will be played: day, time and where to watch)
​
However, Bayern showed a solid image, displayed the solvency of a lifetime, managed the match, turned around the initial 0-1 with the usual spirit and, although their season in the Bundesliga was unfortunate, they have their saviour table. He goes to Madrid with a draw, with an evident improvement in his game and with an unstoppable Musiala, extremely skilled, brave, and tough. He can be a star for the rest of the decade, he is only 21 years old and his connection with Florian Wirtz should return Germany to the top of the podium. They are two cracks.

“Bellingham disconnected,” headlined the newspaper AS. Indeed, after a brilliant start to the season in the Spanish league, the Englishman has declined in recent months, he was even unknown in the three knockout rounds. Until yesterday they were shouting for the Ballon d’Or for him, now they are wondering what’s wrong with him. And they claim the trophy for Vinicius. “If they don’t give it to them it would be a shame,” the Real Madrid fans roar. The Brazilian is in a happy moment, he has not yet won any title, although he could win the League and Champions League. And Copa América, why not…? Brazil is always Brazil.

In surveys from various forums, Madrid oscillates between 47 and 52% of preferences. Bayern scratches 24%; Paris Saint Germain, despite having lost in the first leg, reaches 13%, and Borussia Dortmund 15%. The Spanish team also leads in the gambling houses. Paying €2.20 for each euro bet, PSG, despite losing, remains second with 3.75, Bayern Munich 4.50 and Borussia Dortmund 8.

Dortmund seems like the ugly duckling of the lot, few see real chances of winning, however, they play well and, pay attention to this: they create a wealth of scoring opportunities. If I had the efficiency of Madrid I would score every game. They beat PSG with a goal from the Füllkrug tank and came up short, it was for two or three. I would have gone to Paris with the semifinal in my pocket. The Austrian Sabitzer failed a lot. The meager 1-0 means that the French team can turn it around at the Parc des Princes. Of course, it will also advance lines and offer spaces behind.

A shadow always appears on Mbappé’s horizon. A Ballon d’Or is insistently requested for him, but it sows uncertainty. Of course, no one will say that Mbappé is bad or that he wrinkles, he is a great star, although he is also a player who strangely disappears in many games, he is absent. He almost never highlights that aspect. Only praise. In this case, AS and L’Equipe do. We must remember that PSG paid 180 million euros for him 7 years ago, signing him to finally win the Champions League. He never could. And when they reached the final it was Neymar who was the decisive player, not him. They have surrounded him with figures and given him all the honors, the captaincy, the penalties, the free kicks, they fed him with the best passes… but he couldn’t. Some analysts object that he is not a leader. On the field it can’t be because he doesn’t carry the ball, he is up there, he depends on others to set up the game and get it to him. Once again he has a delicious opportunity to raise the Orejona, we will see if he succeeds before he leaves. Dortmund is not an insurmountable barrier.

Kylian played as a 9, the position reserved for him in Madrid. The one on the far left, his natural place, is occupied by another rooster: Vinicius. And Vini is not going to leave his place to “the new guy,” whatever his name is. The capanga in the Bernabéu locker room is him. They will even have a first confrontation for the Ballon d’Or. Today, they are the first two mentioned to obtain it. There is another issue: if PSG and Madrid reach the final, Mbappé will have to face what, starting July 1, will be his new club. What will that look like…? Will he leave his soul to win…? Will he score goals…? Will Rudiger and Carvajal soften it with firewood as they usually do…? If that final happens, it will be surrounded by morbidity. And if PSG wins 1-
0 with a goal from Mbappé, will they celebrate…? A lot, a little…?

Be careful, a German definition can also be given in London. The three – Bayern, Dortmund, PSG – have more game than Madrid, Madrid has more punch than the others. Anything can happen.
​
​
Last tango
​
JORGE BARRAZA
​For TIME
​@JorgebarrazaOK